Obesity Drug Market & Competition - Amgen's once-monthly weight loss shot, Maritide, showed patients without type 2 diabetes losing an average of 20% of their body weight after one year, but with a high rate of side effects and discontinuations [1] - Eli Lilly appears to be leading the obesity drug race with a safe oral candidate and an injectable (amalin) that provides weight loss with less muscle mass loss [2] - Novo Nordisk is facing challenges with disappointing Kaggarma data, while Eli Lilly is presenting positive results [2] - Novo Nordisk currently holds 33% of the market share, but Eli Lilly's oral data looks promising [4] - The market may not be seeking a 25% weight loss if other options offer around 22% [5] Amgen's Valuation & Pharma Sector - Amgen's stock dropped almost 6% after disappointing results for its weight loss shot [1] - Amgen is trading at approximately 12-13 times next year's numbers, which may not be considered cheap given the current pharma multiples and revenue cliffs [7][8] - The average pharma multiple is around 10 [7] - Over 50% of revenue for companies like Merck and Bristol-Myers Squibb will disappear by the end of the decade [8] Biotech & M&A - Biotech has had a decent run, with potential catalysts for M&A activity [9] - Despite potential asset quality concerns, increased M&A activity is expected in the biotech sector due to revenue degradation at the pharma level [11] - Big Pharma companies need to pursue M&A, with Pfizer, having spent $60 billion since the pandemic, actively seeking more assets, potentially in the obesity area [12]