船舶调研纪要

Financial Data and Key Metrics - The company's financial indicators have shown positive trends in 2023, with significant improvements in profitability and operational efficiency [1] - The company expects a higher proportion of profits in the second half of 2024 [3] - The revenue target for the current year is relatively low due to the delivery of cruise ships and the disposal of offshore platforms, which contributed nearly 10 billion yuan last year [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - The company has focused on high-end and green ship types, as well as segmented ship types, to meet the demand from major and high-quality shipowners [1] - The proportion of high-priced ships in the current order book is 2/3, with the first half of the year primarily focused on clearing low-priced ship orders [1] - The company has maintained flexibility in order acceptance to mitigate risks, including taking on some short-term orders [1] Market Data and Key Metrics - The global shipbuilding market is experiencing a strong cycle, with high order volumes and rising prices [1] - The current shipbuilding cycle is driven by four factors: normal ship replacement, a backlog of orders from 2013-2020, decarbonization in the shipping industry, and geopolitical factors increasing demand for ships [1] - The ship price index is expected to rise further, with the current cycle characterized by higher quality and complexity of ships compared to the previous cycle [1] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is transitioning from being a large shipbuilding nation to a strong one, with a focus on international competition and leveraging its industrial base [2] - The company is competing fully with South Korea, particularly in high-end ship types like LNG carriers [3] - The industry is experiencing a concentration of orders towards leading companies, with limited new capacity expansion due to cautious market conditions [2] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The company believes the current shipbuilding cycle may exceed expectations, with higher down payments, more high-quality customers, and lower speculative orders compared to the previous cycle [1] - The company is optimistic about future profitability, with improving gross margins due to rising ship prices, favorable steel prices, and exchange rates [1] - The company is closely monitoring international market developments and geopolitical uncertainties to better position itself in the market [1] Other Important Information - The company does not foresee significant risks of order cancellations, as even if cancellations occur, the orders can be easily reallocated [2] - The company's engine production capacity is currently stable, with no signs of a shortage like in the previous cycle [3] Summary of Q&A Session Question: How does the company view the future trends of the shipbuilding market and the differences between the current cycle and 2007? - The current cycle shares similarities with 2007 in terms of rising order volumes and prices, but is driven by different factors including ship replacement, decarbonization, and geopolitical influences [1] - The current cycle is characterized by higher ship quality and complexity, with a ship complexity coefficient of 0.4 compared to 0.2 in the previous cycle [1] Question: How will the company improve order intake and profitability? - The company is focusing on high-end and green ship types, as well as segmented ship types, to attract major and high-quality shipowners [1] - The company is maintaining flexibility in order acceptance to mitigate risks [1] Question: Is there a possibility of domestic shipyard consolidation? - The global shipbuilding capacity is tight, with some new capacity expansions in China and limited activity in South Korea and Japan [1] - There are still idle capacities from bankrupt shipyards that have not been reactivated [1] Question: Can the company's profit margins return to the highs of the previous cycle? - The company expects a gradual improvement in profit margins, with higher gross margins in the second half of the year as low-priced orders are cleared [1] Question: What factors determine the company's ability to compete with South Korea and Japan for orders? - The company has become the largest shipbuilding nation and is transitioning to a strong competitor, leveraging its industrial base and labor-intensive advantages [2] Question: What is the company's dividend payout ratio? - The company indicated that the dividend payout ratio will not be low [3] Question: How is the company preparing for competition with South Korea in high-end ship types? - The company is fully competing with South Korea, particularly in LNG carriers, and expects its market share to increase over time [3] Question: What is the outlook for engine production capacity? - The company's engine production capacity is stable, with no signs of a shortage like in the previous cycle [3] Question: What is the revenue target for the current year and why is it relatively low? - The revenue target is lower due to the delivery of cruise ships and the disposal of offshore platforms, which contributed nearly 10 billion yuan last year [3]