YTCO(SH:600066)2024-07-15 14:06Summary of Yutong Bus Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Yutong Bus - Industry: New Energy Vehicles (NEV) and Bus Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Growth Potential - Yutong Bus demonstrates strong growth potential globally, particularly in export business, with expectations for single-vehicle profitability and market share to increase by 2026 due to rising domestic and export sales [2][3][6] Single-Vehicle Profitability - The analysis framework for single-vehicle profitability focuses on average selling price and net profit margin, influenced by sales structure of NEVs and export vehicles, sales scale, gross margin, and expense ratio [4][11] - The company aims to optimize product structure and improve net profit margin to enhance single-vehicle profitability [2][4] Historical Performance and Market Dynamics - Yutong experienced three market phases: 1. 2014-2016: Benefited from NEV promotion and government subsidies, leading to significant sales and profit growth. 2. 2017-2019: Faced challenges due to declining subsidies and market demand, resulting in reduced sales and profitability. 3. 2020-2021: Encountered difficulties due to COVID-19, leading to a decline in overall sales and profitability, including a loss in 2020 [5][12] Recovery and Future Outlook - Post-2022, Yutong's export business significantly grew, aiding in product structure adjustment and profitability recovery, with expectations for double-digit growth in 2023 [6][13] - By 2026, Yutong anticipates achieving a total sales volume of 50,000 units, with single-vehicle profitability reaching approximately 89,000 yuan [7][14] Export Business and Market Position - Yutong's export business is expected to continue growing, with an anticipated export share of over 30% by 2026, contributing to overall sales and profitability [14][15] - The company benefits from a strong Chinese supply chain and established overseas channels, positioning it favorably against competitors [8][17] Financial Projections and Market Valuation - Yutong's market capitalization is projected to reach between 670 billion to 710 billion yuan, with potential for higher valuations based on performance [18][19] - The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend policy, with annual dividends exceeding 4 billion yuan and a payout ratio over 30% [18][19] Risks and Competitive Landscape - Despite anticipated growth, Yutong acknowledges potential risks from increasing competition in overseas markets but remains optimistic about maintaining stable profitability [17][19] Additional Important Content - The conference emphasized the importance of understanding the underlying factors driving single-vehicle profitability and the need for accurate net profit adjustments due to past impairments and government subsidies [11][12] - The call served as a platform for discussing Yutong's strategic adjustments in response to market changes and the evolving landscape of the NEV industry [9][10]