德意志银行_亚洲主题战略笔记_币央行重启债券交易(英)

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The PBoC's outstanding size of liquidity facilities is RMB10 trillion, which has been declining due to the reduction in PSL since February 2024 [8][12] - The PBoC's claims on the government stood at RMB1.52 trillion in April, approximately 3.6% of total assets and 1.2% of China's GDP [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The CGB market has become increasingly liquid, with outstanding amounts exceeding RMB30 trillion in April 2024, representing about 23% of GDP [15][71] - The PBoC has expanded its toolkit to include various liquidity facilities, with a total outstanding size of RMB7.5 trillion [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The money multiplier has been impacted by RRR adjustments, with ongoing RRR cuts leading to a higher money multiplier [16][30] - CGB turnover volumes have been rising, indicating deepening liquidity in the market [71] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The PBoC is not moving towards quantitative easing, as stated by the Governor, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing money supply [30][71] - The PBoC aims to ensure that the CGB curve aligns with fundamentals and to protect banks' net interest margins (NIM) [34][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The PBoC's management has indicated that incorporating bond trading into the policy toolbox does not equate to quantitative easing [71] - The PBoC is expected to maintain steady M2 growth at around 8%, implying a base money expansion of approximately RMB3 trillion per annum unless further RRR cuts are made [71] Other Important Information - The PBoC has a history of trading government bonds in the secondary market but is legally prohibited from trading in the primary market [23][71] - The PBoC has utilized various structural monetary tools to manage liquidity, including rediscounting and relending facilities [12][38] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Will the resumption of bond trading lead to quantitative easing? - The PBoC Governor clarified that incorporating bond trading into the policy toolbox does not mean quantitative easing [71] Question: What is the potential size of Treasury trading if adopted? - Assuming the PBoC aims to maintain steady M2 growth at ~8%, this would imply a base money expansion of ~RMB3 trillion per annum unless further RRR cuts are made [71]