ASML Holding(ASML)2023-06-01 13:04ASML Holding N.V. Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Company: ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) - Event: Goldman Sachs Global Semiconductor Conference - Date: May 31, 2023 Key Industry Insights Supply and Demand Dynamics - The semiconductor market is experiencing weakness in the Memory sector due to supply-demand imbalances, while Logic remains strong, particularly in automotive and industrial applications [4][5] - ASML expects a 25% growth in topline revenue for the year, with EUV tools growing at 40% and non-EUV tools at 30% [4][5] EUV Tool Orders and Backlog - EUV orders decreased to €3.8 billion from a peak of €8 billion, but the backlog stands at €39 billion, which is approximately 2x the expected shipments for the year [7][8] - Demand for tools is expected to increase as supply chain issues improve, with lead times returning to normal levels [9][38] Logic Demand and Market Trends - Strong demand for mature Logic tools is driven by applications in distributed and edge computing, as well as the transition to electric vehicles [15][16] - The market for mature Logic is expected to sustain growth due to limited availability of used equipment and the need for new capacity [16] Impact of AI on Demand - ASML sees potential long-term growth in equipment demand driven by AI, although customers are currently in a cautious phase regarding capital spending [19][20] Supply-Demand Imbalances - The company reported a 20% undersupply in the Deep UV market, down from 30% at the end of 2022, indicating improved capacity and demand satisfaction [24][25] China Market Dynamics - Approximately 20% of ASML's backlog is attributed to China, with real demand observed in various sectors including automotive ICs and consumer electronics [26][28] Regulatory Environment - Recent U.S. export restrictions have had a limited indirect impact on ASML's backlog, estimated at 5% [30][31] - The company anticipates that mature immersion tools will still be eligible for export licenses despite new restrictions [31] Average Selling Prices (ASP) - ASML has successfully negotiated higher ASPs to offset inflationary pressures, with expectations for continued improvement in gross margins [32][33] Lead Times and Insulation from Macro Risks - Lead times for EUV tools remain long, providing insulation from macroeconomic risks, with current estimates at 1-2 years for EUV and 9-12 months for Deep UV tools [36][38] High-NA Tool Development - ASML is progressing with High-NA tools, with initial shipments expected in late 2023 and production tools in 2025. The backlog includes orders from both Logic and Memory sectors [40][41] Future Trends in Semiconductor Technology - The transition to gate-all-around technology is viewed positively, as it is expected to drive demand for EUV tools and improve performance and efficiency in semiconductor manufacturing [49][51] Additional Considerations - ASML's long-term revenue model anticipates a semiconductor market size of $1 trillion by 2030, factoring in die size and growth trends [54][56] - The company has shifted to an output-based revenue model for EUV tools, which is expected to enhance predictability and service revenue [60][61]