Mosaic(MOS)2019-09-10 21:41Company and Industry Overview * Company: The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) * Industry: Fertilizer and agricultural products * Focus: Largest finished phosphate and potash producer in the world, with a significant presence in the Americas and a focus on premium fertilizer production and distribution. Key Points 1. 2019 Challenges and Outlook * Challenges: 2019 has been a challenging year for the agricultural sector, particularly for fertilizers and phosphates, due to weather-related disruptions and lower demand. * Outlook: The company believes the current challenges are transitory and not structural, and that the market will eventually rebalance. 2. Business Actions and Initiatives * Curtailment: Mosaic announced a curtailment of 500,000 tons of phosphate production to address excess inventory and improve supply/demand balance. * Brazil Synergies: The company is confident in achieving its synergy targets in Brazil and has announced the next phase of its business transformation, aiming to improve EBITDA by $200 million over three years. * Share Buyback: Mosaic announced a $250 million share buyback program to return capital to shareholders. 3. Financial Projections * 2020: The company expects a structural improvement of $200 million to $225 million in adjusted EBITDA compared to 2019, driven by various initiatives and operational improvements. * 2021: The company aims for a $600 million improvement in adjusted EBITDA between 2019 and 2021, with two-thirds of that improvement coming from items within the company's control. 4. Potash Market Dynamics * Supply: The company does not anticipate any significant surprises in the potash supply landscape in the near term. * Demand: The company is closely monitoring the situation in China, which is a major potash consumer and exporter. * Inventory: The company is focused on working through excess inventory in North America to improve supply/demand balance. 5. Brazil Market Positioning * Advantage: Mosaic has a commanding lead in Brazil, with significant infrastructure and production assets. * Strategies: The company is exploring opportunities to further solidify its position, including expanding distribution, leveraging existing assets, and considering additional M&A or small acquisitions. Additional Notes * The company's K3 mine in Canada is expected to be one of the most efficient potash mines in the world, with significant cost and risk reductions. * The company is also focused on reducing rock costs in its phosphate business through various initiatives and technology advancements.