兴证海外 美股新能源近况更新系列三：Nextracker（NXT.O）

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview: U.S. Photovoltaic Market - The U.S. photovoltaic market is experiencing high growth despite restrictions on component supply and grid connection permits, with an expected addition of 32.4 GW of new photovoltaic capacity in 2023, representing a 60% year-over-year increase [1] - Of this, centralized photovoltaic capacity is projected to reach 22.5 GW, a 91% increase year-over-year [1] - Overall photovoltaic installation capacity is expected to be 43.3 GW, reflecting a 34% year-over-year growth [1] - The U.S. has sufficient component inventory, and fluctuations in import policies have limited impact on installations [1] - The grid connection permit process can take up to three years, with total installation time requiring five years [1] - Future growth in centralized photovoltaic capacity is expected to be moderate [1] Photovoltaic Tracking Bracket Market and Policy Impact - U.S. photovoltaic tracking bracket companies receive subsidies, although the subsidy amounts are relatively small [2] - Policy incentives are aimed at stimulating domestic photovoltaic installations, with a base subsidy of 30% and an additional 10% subsidy [2] - By early 2025, 100% of the main components of tracking brackets will be manufactured domestically in the U.S. [2] Company Performance: Leischke Company - Leischke Company primarily serves the U.S. centralized photovoltaic power station market, with expectations of continued high growth in 2023, followed by moderate growth due to grid connection permit restrictions in subsequent years [3] - In the current high-interest rate environment, the ABC subsidy in the U.S. makes most power station projects economically viable, with installations expected to meet deadlines [3] - Leischke Company will achieve 100% U.S. manufacturing of tracking brackets by early 2025, providing a strong competitive advantage [3] - The company has a comprehensive product matrix, with performance on par with industry leaders, and channel barriers serve as a competitive moat [3] - Recently, Leischke Company has acquired several small U.S. companies to enhance technical applications in complex geological conditions, further improving its product matrix [3] - In Q1 of FY2025 (natural Q2 of 2024), the company had over $4 billion in orders, with Q2 revenue increasing by 50$121 million and $47 million in corporate subsidies for Q1 and Q2, respectively, with Q2 gross profit increasing by 109$140 million, a 95% year-over-year increase, remaining flat quarter-over-quarter [3] - Cash flow remains strong [3] Full-Year Performance Expectations and Market Outlook - Leischke Company maintains its full-year profit guidance, expecting revenue to grow approximately 1415% year-over-year, with EBITDA growth around 20% [4] - The stock price of the U.S. photovoltaic sector is correlated with interest rate cut expectations, with Leischke's stock experiencing a notable decline due to broader market downturns and concerns over U.S. centralized photovoltaic installations [4] - The company boasts top-tier product performance, with established channel and brand barriers, ensuring stable performance and benefiting from domestic supply chain incentives, with 100% U.S. manufactured products expected by early 2025 [4] - Leischke is expanding into global markets, with some overseas operations still in the early stages [4] - The company has a flexible pricing mechanism, allowing cost increases to be passed on to downstream customers, maintaining high overall gross margins and translating revenue growth into profit increases [4] - Profit is expected to grow moderately, with an annualized growth rate of about 10% [4] - As of last Friday, the company's stock price corresponds to future P/E ratios of 13, 12, and 11 for the next three years, indicating a reasonable historical valuation [4] - Market interpretations of project delivery may be overly pessimistic; considering the potential benefits of U.S. interest rate cuts for the photovoltaic sector and the company's solid performance fundamentals, investors are encouraged to pay attention to Leischke Company [4]