渤海证券：晨会纪要

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: Macro and Trade Analysis - Date: August 12, 2024 - Analysts: Zhou Xi, Song Yiwei, Yan Peipei, Jin Peipeng Key Points Export Dynamics 1. Weakening Export Momentum: July exports grew by 7.0% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from June, marking the end of a three-month upward trend. Month-on-month growth turned negative, reaching the lowest level since November 2023, excluding February 2024. The decline in export momentum is attributed to weakening external demand and the expiration of tariff exemptions by the US on Chinese goods, as well as the EU's imposition of countervailing duties on Chinese electric vehicle exports [4][4][4] 2. Import Growth Surprises: July imports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, a significant rise of 9.5 percentage points from June. Month-on-month growth was 3.4%, ending a negative trend observed since early 2024. The unexpected rebound in import growth is primarily due to base effects, although actual momentum remains weak. When using 2019 as a base year, the average compound annual growth rate of imports for the month decreased by 1.1 percentage points, the lowest for the year [4][4][4] 3. Rising Export Uncertainty: Looking ahead, August exports are expected to continue the downward trend due to a higher base effect. Factors contributing to this include a slowdown in US inventory replenishment and rising supply chain pressure indices from the New York Fed. Geopolitical tensions may further impact exports [4][4][4] Risk Factors 1. Geopolitical Risks: Increased global political uncertainty may disrupt market risk appetite [4][4][4] 2. Economic and Policy Changes: Recent fluctuations in overseas economies and domestic economic transitions may lead to unexpected policy adjustments [4][4][4] Financial Market Insights 1. Regulatory Environment: The central bank has reduced liquidity, with a net withdrawal of 1.1 trillion yuan. The money market showed slight fluctuations, with DR007 rising by 7 basis points to 1.77% [6][6][6] 2. Primary Market Activity: In the primary market, 82 bonds were issued, totaling 701 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 579.5 billion yuan. The issuance of special bonds remained stable [6][6][6] 3. Secondary Market Trends: Most interest rates rose due to increased regulatory oversight, with the 1-year government bond yield up by 2 basis points to 1.43% and the 10-year yield up by 5 basis points to 2.18% [6][6][6] 4. Market Outlook: The focus remains on regulatory measures affecting long-term yields. If these measures persist, long-term yields may rise sharply, although the upward space for yields remains limited due to unchanged fundamentals [6][6][6] Investment Ratings - Buy: Expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by over 20% in the next 6 months - Hold: Expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10%-20% in the next 6 months - Neutral: Expected to perform within -10% to 10% of the CSI 300 index in the next 6 months - Reduce: Expected to underperform the CSI 300 index by over 10% in the next 6 months - Positive Outlook: Expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by over 10% in the next 12 months [10][10][10] Additional Notes - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring regulatory changes and their impact on market dynamics, particularly in the context of ongoing economic transitions and geopolitical tensions [6][6][6]