Radian(RDN)2023-02-09 20:25Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2022, the company reported GAAP net income of 1.01 per diluted share, compared to 743 million or 3.16 per diluted share in 2021, resulting in an 18.2% return on equity compared to 14.1% in 2021 [5][6] - The company returned 400 million of common stock, representing 11% of total shares outstanding [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net premiums earned in Q4 2022 were 261 billion as of December 31, 2022, with a 10% year-over-year growth in monthly premium in force [6][8] - Monthly and other recurring premiums accounted for 95% of new volume in both Q4 and full year 2022 [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The persistency rate increased to 84% on a quarterly annualized basis in Q4 2022, up from 72% a year ago, driven by a significant portion of the insurance in force having mortgage rates of 5% or less [8] - The investment income increased to 37 million in Q4 2021, with the book yield on the investment portfolio rising to 3.5% [60] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on three strategic areas: enhancing the economic value of the Mortgage Insurance portfolio, growing the Homegenius business, and managing capital resources [14] - The company has increased pricing in 2022 and continues to do so in 2023, aiming to leverage dynamic risk-based pricing strategies [14] - The company is positioned to pay recurring ordinary dividends from Radian Guaranty, projected to be between 400 million in 2023 [9][63] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the housing market, noting a strong labor market and a supply-demand imbalance that supports home price stability [28] - The company anticipates a decline in mortgage origination volumes in 2023, followed by a return to growth in 2024, driven by first-time homebuyers [50] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong credit quality and underwriting standards, with new defaults expected to increase as the portfolio seasons [52] Other Important Information - The company completed a series of capital actions that resulted in a 382 million distribution from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group [4] - The company has made adjustments to its Homegenius cost structure in response to declining revenues, with a focus on operational efficiency [59] Q&A Session Summary Question: How to think about the loss provision on current period defaults going forward? - Management indicated that defaults will be concentrated in certain loan cohorts, with FICO and LTV being key variables in determining defaults [20][32] Question: How is the competitive environment viewed? - Management noted that there have been no significant market share shifts, but pricing dynamics have been increasing, with a focus on geographic pricing [24][64] Question: Can Homegenius reach breakeven in a sub 2 trillion mortgage market? - Management acknowledged the challenges but expressed optimism about positioning Homegenius for profitability despite market conditions [26][66] Question: What are the constraints around capital return? - Management highlighted the importance of regulatory requirements and PMIERs, indicating a strong capital position to support future distributions [67]