Group 1 - Radian Group (RDN) shares have underperformed over the past year, losing approximately 7% of their value [1] - Despite delivering strong financial results, the market has already priced in these outcomes, leading to a lack of upward movement in stock price [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of macro views and stock-specific turnaround stories for achieving outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile [1]

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 _____________________________ FORM 10-Q _____________________________ (Mark One) ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2025 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to Commission File Number 1-11356 _______________________________ Radian Group Inc. (Exact name of ...

Radian Group (RDN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call July 31, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsDan Kobell - EVP, FinanceRick Thornberry - CEOSumita Pandit - President & CFOBose George - Managing DirectorConference Call ParticipantsDouglas Harter - Equity Research AnalystOperatorGood day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Second Quarter twenty twenty five Radian Group Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and a ...

Radian Group (RDN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call July 31, 2025 11:00 AM ET Speaker0Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Second Quarter twenty twenty five Radian Group Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press 11 on your telephone.You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, pl ...

Financial Performance - Radian Group's net income for Q2 2025 was $142 million, compared to $145 million in Q1 2025 and $152 million in Q2 2024[9] - The diluted net income per share was $1.02, and the adjusted diluted net operating income per share was $1.01[9] - The book value per share grew by 12% year-over-year to $33.18, compared to $29.66 as of June 30, 2024[9] - The return on equity was 12.5%, and the adjusted net operating return on equity was 12.4%[10] Mortgage Insurance - The primary mortgage insurance in force reached $276.7 billion, compared to $274.2 billion as of March 31, 2025, and $272.8 billion as of June 30, 2024[12] - Net mortgage insurance premiums earned were $234 million, consistent with $234 million in Q1 2025 and $235 million in Q2 2024[12] - New insurance written was $14.3 billion, compared to $9.5 billion in Q1 2025 and $13.9 billion in Q2 2024[14] Investment Portfolio - Total investments amounted to $6.5 billion, compared to $6.1 billion as of March 31, 2025, and $6.6 billion as of June 30, 2024[14] - Net investment income was $73 million, compared to $69 million in Q1 2025 and $74 million in Q2 2024[12] - The investment portfolio is diversified, with 41.2% allocated to corporate bonds and commercial paper, totaling $2.747 billion[36] Capital and Risk Management - Available holding company liquidity was $784 million, compared to $834 million as of March 31, 2025, and $1.2 billion as of June 30, 2024[10] - PMIERs excess available assets were $2.0 billion, compared to $2.1 billion as of March 31, 2025, and $2.2 billion as of June 30, 2024[10] - The holding company debt-to-capital ratio was 19.2%[56]

Exhibit 99.1 press release July 30, 2025 Radian Announces Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results — Second quarter net income of $142 million, or $1.02 per diluted share — — Book value per share growth of 12% year-over-year to $33.18 — — Primary mortgage insurance in force grew year-over-year to another all-time high of $276.7 billion — — Default rate declined from prior quarter, driven by continued favorable credit trends — — $200 million ordinary dividend paid from Radian Guaranty to holding company during ...

Company Overview - Radian (RDN) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings, with a projected earnings per share (EPS) of $0.93, reflecting a decrease of 6.1% compared to the previous year [3][12] - Revenue for the quarter is anticipated to be $316.6 million, which represents a 1.4% increase from the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on July 30, and the actual results will significantly influence the stock price, depending on whether they meet or exceed expectations [2][12] - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analyst expectations [4] Earnings Surprise Prediction - Radian's Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -4.87%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Radian exceeded the consensus EPS estimate of $0.95 by delivering earnings of $0.99, resulting in a surprise of +4.21% [13] - Over the past four quarters, Radian has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates each time [14] Industry Context - Another player in the insurance sector, Principal Financial (PFG), is expected to report earnings of $1.98 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 21.5%, with revenues projected at $4 billion, down 1.7% from the previous year [18] - Principal Financial's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.3% higher in the last 30 days, but a lower Most Accurate Estimate has led to an Earnings ESP of -1.14%, making it difficult to predict an earnings beat [19]

Core Insights - Radian Group Inc. (RDN) shares closed at $36.32, near its 52-week high, indicating strong investor confidence and potential for further price appreciation [1] - The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, suggesting solid upward momentum [1] Company Performance - RDN has gained 14.5% year to date, outperforming its industry and the Finance sector, which grew by 7.7% and 8.9%, respectively [3][4] - The company has outperformed peers such as Old Republic International Corporation (3.7% gain), MetLife, Inc. (2.1% loss), and Assurant, Inc. (10% loss) [4] Market Outlook - The private mortgage insurance market is expected to remain around $300 billion in 2025, with RDN focusing on core, fee-based businesses for growth [7][18] - RDN's revenue for 2025 is estimated at $1.26 billion, reflecting a year-over-year improvement of 0.9% [9] Valuation Metrics - RDN shares are trading at a forward price-to-book value of 1.12X, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.73X and the Finance sector's 4.27X [8] - The average price target for RDN is $36.83, suggesting a potential upside of 0.74% from the last closing price [11] Analyst Sentiment - One of the two analysts covering RDN has raised estimates for 2025 and 2026, leading to a 1.06% and 1.3% increase in consensus estimates, respectively [10] Financial Health - RDN has been strengthening its capital position through capital contributions and reinsurance transactions, allowing for dividend hikes and share buybacks [17] - The company has increased its quarterly dividend by 4.1% in Q1 2025, marking the sixth consecutive year of dividend increases, with a current yield of 2.8% [19] Growth Drivers - New business growth and rising annual persistency rates are expected to expand RDN's insurance-in-force portfolio [7][16] - The company has a solid track record of beating earnings estimates, averaging a 12.45% surprise over the last four quarters [9]

Core Insights - Radian Group Inc. (RDN) shares closed at $34.24, near its 52-week high, indicating strong investor confidence and potential for further price appreciation [1] - The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, suggesting solid upward momentum [1] Company Performance - Radian Group has a market capitalization of $4.6 billion, with an average trading volume of 1.7 million shares over the last three months [2] - Year-to-date, RDN shares have gained 7.9%, outperforming the Finance sector's growth of 4.8% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite's decline of 0.3% [5][6] - Compared to peers, RDN has outperformed Old Republic International Corporation (3.9% gain), while MetLife, Inc. and Assurant, Inc. have seen losses of 3.6% and 6.2%, respectively [7] Valuation Metrics - RDN shares are trading at a forward price-to-book value of 1.05X, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.44X and the Finance sector's 4.06X, indicating a better entry point for investors [10] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Radian Group's 2025 revenues is $1.26 billion, reflecting a year-over-year improvement of 0.9% [11] - Earnings per share and revenues for 2026 are projected to increase by 3% and 3.2%, respectively, compared to 2025 estimates [11] - Radian Group has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, averaging a 12.45% surprise over the last four quarters [11] Analyst Sentiment - One of the two analysts covering RDN has lowered estimates for 2025 and 2026, resulting in a 0.2% decrease in the 2025 earnings estimate and a 0.7% decrease for 2026 [12] Business Strategy - Radian Group is focusing on core business areas with higher growth potential, ensuring a predictable and recurring fee-based revenue stream [15] - The company is experiencing a decline in claim filings, which is expected to strengthen its balance sheet and improve its financial profile [16] Capital Position - Radian Group is enhancing its capital position through capital contributions and reinsurance transactions, allowing for dividend hikes and share buybacks [17] Dividend Performance - The company has increased its quarterly dividend by 4.1% in Q1 2025, marking the sixth consecutive year of dividend increases, with a current yield of 2.9%, surpassing the industry average of 2.6% [22] Market Outlook - The private mortgage insurance market is expected to grow by approximately 10% in 2025 compared to 2024, favoring mortgage insurers in the long term [21]

Core Viewpoint - Radian Group Inc. has authorized a new $750 million share buyback program, reflecting confidence in its financial strength and capital flexibility, while also increasing its quarterly dividend by 4.1% [1][4][3]. Group 1: Share Buyback Program - The board of directors has approved a new share repurchase program of $750 million, which will expire on December 31, 2027, bringing the total repurchase authority to approximately $863 million [1][2]. - Since 2020, Radian Group has repurchased 74 million shares for $1.8 billion, representing over 36% of shares outstanding as of January 1, 2020 [2][3]. - As of March 31, 2025, Radian repurchased shares for $207 million, with $336 million remaining under the current program [3]. Group 2: Dividend Increase - The board has approved a quarterly dividend of 25.5 cents per share, to be paid on June 17, 2025, to stockholders of record as of June 2 [4]. - This marks the sixth consecutive year of dividend increases, with the dividend more than doubling over the past five years and a six-year CAGR of 13% [4]. - Radian's current dividend yield stands at 3.1%, surpassing the industry average of 2.5%, making it attractive for yield-seeking investors [4]. Group 3: Financial Position and Growth - Radian Group maintains a solid balance sheet with sufficient liquidity and strong cash flows, enabling effective capital deployment through share repurchases and dividend hikes [3][5]. - The company is well-positioned to return capital to stockholders while pursuing growth initiatives and delivering innovative products and services [5]. - An improving mortgage insurance portfolio, declining claims, and a solid capital position are expected to contribute to impressive results for the insurer [5]. Group 4: Stock Performance - Radian's stock has gained 4.3% year-to-date, underperforming the industry and sector returns of 5.7%, but outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite growth of 0.2% [6][8].