Lilly(LLY) 德意志银行·2024-10-21 15:21Key Points Industry/Company Involved: - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY.N) Core Views and Arguments: - Rating: Buy - Revenue and EPS Outlook: LLY's 3Q24 revenue is expected to miss consensus estimates, but the company maintains its full-year revenue guidance. Non-GAAP EPS guidance is updated to reflect incremental IPR&D charges. - Tirzepatide (Mounjaro): IQVIA scripts for Tirzepatide look softer than expected, but demand remains solid. LLY's manufacturing capacity for Tirzepatide is estimated at approximately 12 million injectors per month. - Verzenio: Sales growth is modest, with pressure from Kisqali. CDK4/6 class share is stable. - Jardiance: Sales growth is in line with expectations. - Operating Margin: Street's OpEx looks fine and in line with LLY's FY24 Operating Margin guide. - R&D and SG&A: LLY continues to invest in pipeline development, with R&D and SG&A increasing significantly in 2025. Other Important Points: - Hurricane Helene: Disrupted retail pharmacies and long-term care facilities in the southeastern US, potentially impacting Tirzepatide scripts by <65bps in a worst-case scenario. - GLP-1s: Mounjaro and Ozempic's continuous scripts (CBRx) are growing, while Trulicity's CBRx is eroding. Switching to Zepbound seems to be gaining steam, while Wegovy trends down. - New Starts: Mounjaro and Ozempic scripts are running parallel, with Ozempic having slightly higher new starts. - Humalog: Sales growth is modest, with a slight decrease in implied net price. - Valuation: Price target is 960.02 - $553.93. - Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, counterparty exposure, issuer creditworthiness, client segmentation, regulation, changes in tax policies, currency convertibility, and settlement issues related to local clearing houses. References: - [1] - [2] - [3] - [4] - [5] - [6] - [7] - [8] - [9] - [10] - [11] - [12] - [13] - [14] - [15] - [16] - [17] - [18] - [19] - [20] - [21] - [22] - [23] - [24] - [25] - [26] - [27] - [28] - [29] - [30] - [31] - [32] - [33] - [34] - [35] - [36] - [37] - [38] - [39] - [40] - [41] - [42] - [43] - [44] - [45] - [46] - [47] - [48] - [49] - [50] - [51] - [52] - [53] - [54] - [55] - [56] - [57] - [58] - [59] - [60]