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Intel(INTC) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
INTCIntel(INTC)2024-11-01 00:01
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Financial Data and Key Metrics - Q3 revenue was 13.3billion,up413.3 billion, up 4% sequentially, and in the upper half of the guidance range [43] - Non-GAAP gross margin was 18%, impacted by 3 billion in non-cash impairment and accelerated depreciation charges, primarily for Intel 7 [45] - Q3 operating cash flow was 4.1billion,up4.1 billion, up 1.8 billion sequentially, driven by better working capital [48] - Adjusted free cash flow was negative 2.7billion,withgrowthCapExof2.7 billion, with growth CapEx of 6.5 billion in the quarter [49] - The company expects Q4 revenue to be between 13.3billionand13.3 billion and 14.3 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 39.5% and EPS of 0.12[59]BusinessLineDataandKeyMetrics−IntelProductsrevenuewas0.12 [59] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Intel Products revenue was 12.2 billion, up 3% sequentially, with CCG revenue down 1% and DCAI revenue up 10% [50] - Intel Foundry revenue was 4.4billion,upslightlysequentially,withanoperatinglossof4.4 billion, up slightly sequentially, with an operating loss of 5.8 billion driven by 3billioninimpairmentcharges[52]−Mobileyerevenuewas3 billion in impairment charges [52] - Mobileye revenue was 485 million, down 8% year-over-year, primarily due to a more than 50% reduction in shipments to China [54] - Altera revenue was 412million,up14412 million, up 14% sequentially, with operating margins increasing by 900 basis points [55] Market Data and Key Metrics - The company is focusing on the AI PC category, with the launch of the Intel Core Ultra 200V series processors and plans to ship over 100 million AI PCs by the end of 2025 [20][21] - In DCAI, the company launched the Xeon 6 product, which doubles the performance of the prior generation, and the Gaudi 3 AI accelerator, which delivers twice the networking bandwidth and 1.5x the memory bandwidth of its predecessor [25][26] - The company is refocusing its NEX portfolio on networking and telco, moving the Edge business into CCG to leverage core client business investments [29][30] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is executing a cost reduction plan, including a greater than 15% workforce reduction, a 20% reduction in capital expenditures, and portfolio simplification to unlock efficiencies [9][10][11] - Intel is focusing on its x86 franchise, with plans to drive new levels of customization, compatibility, and scalability to meet next-generation computing demands [16][17] - The company is creating an x86 Ecosystem Advisory Group with industry leaders to shape the future of x86 architecture [18][19] - Intel Foundry is being established as an independent subsidiary to optimize capital structure and attract external customers [35] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The company is focused on improving profitability, managing costs, and strengthening the balance sheet to create long-term shareholder value [40][41] - Management expects adjusted free cash flow to be positive in 2025, with OpEx of 17.5 billion and gross/net CapEx of 20−23billion/20-23 billion/12-14 billion, respectively [61] - The company is optimistic about the growing market adoption of AI PCs and its strong product positioning, with gross margin expansion expected to improve significantly in 2026 [62] Other Important Information - The company is finalizing a multiyear, multibillion-dollar commitment with AWS for custom Xeon 6 and AI fabric chips [33] - Intel received an additional 3 billion in direct funding under the Secure Enclave program to produce leading-edge semiconductors for the US government [34] - The company is in discussions with potential investors for Altera, with plans to conclude by early 2025 [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Metrics for 18A transition and external customer growth [65] - The company will provide qualitative metrics on progress, including LDV updates and customer additions, with financial impacts expected in 2026 [66] Question: Gross margin drivers and outlook [67] - Q3 gross margin upside was due to better sell-through of reserved inventory, while Q4 will see pressure from 18A start-up costs [68] - Lunar Lake's memory-in-package design will weigh on gross margins in 2025, with improvements expected in 2026 as Panther Lake ramps [68] Question: Defect density and yield for 18A [71] - Defect density for 18A is sub-0.4, which is healthy for the current phase of development, with high-volume production yields expected to improve in the second half of 2025 [71] Question: Panther Lake and Nova Lake outsourcing [72] - The majority of Panther Lake and Nova Lake wafers will be produced internally, with some flexibility for external sourcing [73] Question: Capacity flexibility and 18A success [74] - The company has optionality in its product portfolio and supply chain, with flexibility to scale up capacity if market conditions require [75] Question: Q1 seasonality [76] - The company expects Q1 seasonality to be in the 8-10% range, with more clarity provided in the next earnings call [76] Question: 2025 revenue and gross margin outlook [79] - The company is managing the business for 3-5% annual revenue growth, with gross margins expected to face headwinds in the second half of 2025 due to Lunar Lake [80] Question: Intel's AI strategy in data centers [81] - The company sees a strong role for CPUs in enterprise AI, with a strategy focused on CPU plus accelerator solutions and the x86 Ecosystem Advisory Group [81] Question: External Foundry revenue and success metrics [84] - External Foundry revenue will be modest in the near term, with the goal of reaching 15 billion by the end of the decade [85] Question: Server market share and roadmap [87] - The company aims to stabilize and grow its server market share, with a strong roadmap including Granite Rapids, Clearwater Forest, and Diamond Rapids [88] Question: Packaging business and customer interest [91] - The company sees strong interest in its advanced packaging technologies, with profitability achieved in Q3 and a growing pipeline of design wins [92] Question: Lunar Lake memory packaging impact [93] - Lunar Lake's memory-in-package design is having a significant impact on gross margins, but this is a one-off issue that will not affect future products [94][95] Question: CapEx and OpEx flexibility [97] - The company has flexibility in CapEx, particularly in capacity investments, while OpEx is relatively firm at $17.5 billion [98] Question: Foundry subsidiary model and strategic options [100] - The subsidiary model provides operational integrity and funding flexibility, with the majority of volumes still coming from Intel Products [100] Question: Product focus and x86 prioritization [103] - The company is simplifying its product portfolio, reducing SKUs, and integrating graphics capabilities to focus on x86 leadership [103][104] Question: IDM 2.0 model and Foundry relationship [105] - The subsidiary model supports the IDM 2.0 strategy, with a focus on both internal and external Foundry success [106]