Carlsberg(US:CABGY)2019-02-07 07:08Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net revenue grew organically by 6.5% and operating profit by 11% in 2018, with gross cash generation remaining strong at DKK 6.2 billion [10][24] - The company reduced net debt further, ending the year with a leverage of 1.29 times, and proposed a 13% increase in dividends [10][33] - The organic volume growth was driven by all three regions, with a gross margin improvement of 20 basis points to 50% [11][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international premium brands, such as 1664 Blanc, grew by 49%, while Grimbergen grew by 14% and Tuborg by 10% [13][14] - Craft and specialty category grew by 26%, and alcohol-free brews increased by 33% in Western Europe [16][17] - The Carlsberg brand volumes grew by 5%, with a new design launched in September [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Western Europe, net revenue grew organically by 3%, with total volume growth of 3.6% [46] - The Asian region saw net revenue grow organically by 13.3%, driven by 8.6% volume growth and 4% price mix [58] - Eastern Europe delivered 9.3% organic net revenue growth, driven by 3.4% volume growth and 6% price mix [66] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its SAIL'22 priorities, aiming for growth through significant investments in marketing and capabilities [5][8] - The strategy includes premiumization efforts and expanding the craft and specialty portfolio [16][58] - The company aims to maintain a conservative balance sheet while exploring potential M&A opportunities [41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued growth despite headwinds from high input costs and tough comparisons in Western Europe [43] - The company expects mid-single digit organic operating profit growth for 2019, with a focus on efficiencies and cash discipline [43][44] - Input cost pressures are anticipated, with COGS per hectoliter expected to increase by 2% to 3% [80] Other Important Information - The company initiated a DKK 4.5 billion share buyback program, reflecting a significant increase in cash returns to shareholders [38][41] - Sustainability efforts are ongoing, with targets set for zero carbon footprint and zero water waste by 2030 [19][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Buyback and Capital Allocation - Inquiry about the DKK 4.5 billion buyback decision and future capital allocation strategies, including potential M&A opportunities [74] - Management confirmed that share buyback discussions will be ongoing and dependent on cash needs for business expansion [78] Question: Input Cost Pressures - Question regarding the scale of input cost pressures for 2019 and mitigation strategies [74] - Management indicated a well-hedged position for 2019 and plans to offset cost increases through pricing and mix [79][80] Question: Trade Working Capital Expectations - Inquiry about trade working capital performance and expectations for 2019 [84] - Management expressed satisfaction with trade working capital performance and aims to maintain strict discipline [85] Question: Profitability in India - Question about profitability improvements in India [84] - Management reported a double-digit EBIT margin position in India, indicating strong market performance [87] Question: Russia Market Dynamics - Inquiry about pricing dynamics and competitive activity in Russia [84] - Management noted challenges in Q4 due to a major retailer's issues but indicated stable market share [88] Question: Regional EBIT Growth Guidance - Inquiry about EBIT growth guidance by region and continued investment in SAIL'22 initiatives [93] - Management confirmed ongoing investments in growth initiatives and a commitment to mid-single digit EBIT growth [95]