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Key Points Industry Overview 1. Significant Increase in Real Estate Transactions: Since the policy package was implemented in late September, the real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou has seen a significant increase in transaction volume. Beijing's second-hand housing transaction volume in October reached 17,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 62% and a month-on-month increase of 30%. [2] 2. Decline in Listing Volume: The number of second-hand listings in Beijing has been declining since April, reaching 139,000 units by the end of October. This trend suggests that the reduction in listings may indicate a stabilization or even an increase in future prices. [4] 3. Policy Effectiveness: Large-scale policy stimulus has been implemented four times since last September, with each policy based on the previous one and further relaxing measures such as down payment ratios and interest rates. This cumulative effect has led to a stronger market recovery and longer duration. [6] 4. Price Decline and Policy Impact: Home prices have fallen by about 30% from their peak last year to the low point in September this year. As prices continue to fall, the effectiveness of policies becomes stronger. [7] 5. "Stabilize and Reverse" Policy: The Politburo Standing Committee's first proposal of the "stabilize and reverse" slogan is mainly aimed at stabilizing home prices. This indicates that future policies will have continuity and will not stop until the goal is achieved. [8] Company-Specific Information 1. Commercial Asset Disposal: The company sold a hotel asset earlier this year, generating over 70 million yuan in investment income. It also plans to gradually divest some of its shopping malls and department stores in Kunming. [11] 2. Consideration for Asset Disposal: If the company can successfully dispose of assets and realize a cash inflow of tens of billions of yuan, it can use these funds to repay loans, saving over 100 million yuan in interest annually. [12] 3. Commission Rate: The commission rate for second-hand housing has remained stable in most cities over the past two years, with some cities seeing slight increases. Beijing's commission rate dropped from about 1.8% to 1.4-1.5% after Lianjia reduced its fees last October. [13] 4. Leasing Business: The leasing business has maintained steady growth, with the number of rental units increasing from 250,000 at the end of 2022 to 300,000 by the end of September this year, with an annual growth rate of nearly 10%. [14] Market Trends 1. Transaction Structure: There is no clear distinction between demand for essential needs and improvement needs in the transaction structure. However, it is felt that both essential needs and improvement needs have recovered well after the new policy, with no significant investment demand. [16] 2. Potential for Investment Demand: If the national interest rate is further reduced by 50-100 basis points next year, the loan interest rate for first-time homebuyers may approach or even fall below the rental yield. This could attract investment demand into the market and promote residents to increase leverage. [17]