CSC(601066) -·2024-12-25 02:22Industry and Company Key Points 1. Global Economic Uncertainty and Policy Shifts: * U.S. Conservatism and Protectionism: The U.S. policy of "America First" and unilateralism is causing significant uncertainty globally, impacting non-U.S. currency and capital flows [2]. * Positive Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Implementing more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies is expected to stabilize the economy, with manufacturing investment playing a crucial role [3]. * Supply Chain Disruption: Policies like self-sufficiency, restricting foreign investment, and enhancing cybersecurity are aimed at ensuring U.S. technological leadership and potentially disrupting global supply chains [5]. 2. Economic Outlook and Growth: * GDP Growth Target: The target for GDP growth in 2025 is expected to be around 5% [10]. * Inflation Expectations: Increasing inflation expectations is a key task, with the CPI expected to rise from 0.4% in 2024 to 0.8% in 2025 [12]. * PPI: The PPI is expected to remain negative in 2024 but turn positive in the second half of 2025, reaching 0% for the full year [12]. 3. Consumption and Investment: * Consumer Spending: The report emphasizes the need to boost consumer spending and improve living standards, including increasing pensions, healthcare subsidies, and implementing pro-childbirth policies [20, 30]. * Investment: The focus is on "filling in the gaps" and enhancing future growth, with a focus on major projects and government investment [41]. 4. Real Estate Market: * Stabilization: The real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2025, with prices expected to rise slightly [34]. * Deleveraging: The report highlights the ongoing deleveraging process in the real estate sector, with a focus on reducing inventory and stabilizing prices [36]. 5. Industrial Development and Technology: * Marshall's Cycle: The report discusses the upward trend in the Marshall's cycle, with a focus on industries like new energy, new energy vehicles, and high-end manufacturing [38, 48]. * Strategic Emerging Industries: The report emphasizes the importance of strategic emerging industries, including new generation information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, and new energy vehicles [53]. 6. Policy Measures: * Fiscal Policy: The report highlights the expansionary fiscal policy, including increasing the fiscal deficit, increasing government bond issuance, and optimizing fiscal expenditure [62, 68, 74]. * Monetary Policy: The report advocates for a moderate easing of monetary policy, including lowering interest rates and maintaining sufficient liquidity [76, 86, 94]. 7. Asset Allocation: * Equities: The report suggests that the stock market will benefit from policy support and the expansion of domestic demand [138]. * Bonds: The report predicts a downward trend in bond yields due to long-term growth deceleration, asset scarcity, and the start of a monetary easing cycle [124]. * Currencies: The report expects the US dollar to weaken in the medium term, while the renminbi is expected to stabilize [138]. * Real Estate: The report predicts a stabilization in the real estate market, with a focus on reducing inventory and improving quality [138]. * Commodities: The report suggests that commodities like copper and crude oil will be affected by weak demand and the strong US dollar [138]. * U.S. Equities: The report predicts that the U.S. stock market will face challenges due to economic weakness and profit growth concerns [138]. 8. Risks and Challenges: * Global Economic Uncertainty: The report highlights the potential risks of global economic uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and financial stability concerns [147]. * Inflation: The report emphasizes the need to control inflation and maintain price stability [14, 195]. * Deleveraging: The process of deleveraging in key sectors like real estate and local government debt remains a challenge [36, 41].