Key Points Industry Overview 1. Overall Performance: The company's performance is on an upward trend, with sales targets for the year expected to exceed the board's annual expectations. The sales volume target of 3 million tons achieved in the semi-annual report was met, and prices have been stable and rising since the second quarter [1]. 2. Supply and Demand Balance: The industry's supply has increased compared to previous years, but the overall inventory level is not high. The volume is expected to catch up in the fourth quarter, with the third quarter being a low point due to price increases and insufficient demand [2]. 3. Price Trends: Prices have been stable and rising, although they have not yet reached a reasonable level. The overall trend is upward [1]. 4. Industry Supply Control: The industry has done a good job controlling supply, with actual effective production growth in 2024 being relatively low. The expected effective production increase in 2025 is expected to be slightly higher than in 2024, but the actual volume increase will not be significant [12]. 5. Supply and Demand Match: The industry's supply increase is expected to be around 15% in a normal year, which is roughly matched by demand. In 2025, there are some structural factors, such as the expected good performance of wind sand and hot water sand, which may affect prices [13]. Product Pricing and Demand 1. Long-term Price of High-end Products: The long-term price of high-end products will be implemented throughout 2025, but the specific price has not yet been agreed with customers. The price will be adjusted based on the new price once the agreement is reached [8]. 2. Price Transmission: The price transmission of hot melt will be better than that of other products due to demand support [4]. 3. Market Demand: The company is optimistic about the demand for 2025, with expectations for growth in the field of double-sided tape and hot melt. The demand for hot melt is expected to be good due to the application in automotive, infrastructure, and consumer electronics [4, 5]. 4. Electronic Material: The demand for electronic materials is expected to increase gradually due to the expansion of application fields such as PCB, industrial applications, and smart applications [6]. 5. New Production Capacity: The new production capacity of electronic materials will not be added in 2025, and the existing capacity will not be significantly increased. The expansion of the industry is relatively slow, and the inventory level is not high, which may lead to price elasticity in 2025 [7]. Industry Supply and Demand 1. Supply Concerns: There are concerns about supply in the industry, with the main risk factor being supply. The industry has done a good job controlling supply, with actual effective production growth in 2024 being relatively low. The expected effective production increase in 2025 is expected to be slightly higher than in 2024, but the actual volume increase will not be significant [11, 12]. 2. Price Stability: The company expects price stability in 2025, with prices for high-end products remaining stable and prices for cover glass and hot melt increasing slightly [13]. 3. Price Transmission: The price transmission of hot melt will be better than that of other products due to demand support [4]. 4. Market Demand: The company is optimistic about the demand for 2025, with expectations for growth in the field of double-sided tape and hot melt. The demand for hot melt is expected to be good due to the application in automotive, infrastructure, and consumer electronics [4, 5]. Other Key Points 1. Tariff Hike Expectations: The impact of potential tariff hikes in the US is uncertain, but the company has several plans to mitigate the impact, including further price transmission to customers, exporting to countries with no tariff barriers, and building factories in other regions [20]. 2. Export Growth: The company expects export growth to continue in 2025, but the specific growth rate has not been disclosed [21]. 3. Export Tax Refund: There is no information about the possibility of reducing the export tax refund rate for copper, aluminum, and other products, including glass fiber [21]. 4. New Production Capacity: The company plans to build new production capacity for electronic materials in 2026, but the specific details have not been disclosed [23]. 5. Research and Development: The company is developing new products and improving cost competitiveness to expand the market [24]. 6. Price Bottom: The price of electronic materials is at a relatively low level, and the company expects it to start rising in the future [25]. 7. Market Demand Growth: The growth rate of market demand for electronic materials is expected to slow down in 2025 compared to 2024, with a growth rate of a few percentage points [26]. 8. Lightweight Frame: The company expects the lightweight frame market to grow in 2025, with a growth rate of 100% compared to 2024. The main challenge is to improve the efficiency of material manufacturers and the acceptance of lightweight frame materials by component manufacturers [27]. 9. Long-term Incentive Plan: The company plans to explore and implement a long-term incentive plan to motivate employees [29]. 10. Price Expectations: The company expects prices to remain stable in the first half of 2025, with price increases for mid-to-high-end products [36].
中国巨石20250116