April 8, 2025 05:07 AM GMT China Jushi | Asia Pacific 1Q25 earnings doubled; strong beat Reaction to earnings Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision higher Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Jushi expects its 1Q25 net profit to double YoY to Rmb701-736mn, beating our expectation. Excluding non-recurrings, net profit in 1Q25 was up 320-350% YoY to Rmb538-589mn. The strong earnings was helped by higher ...

中国巨石 20250408 摘要 Q&A 美国关税对中国巨石的影响如何？ 美国关税对中国巨石的直接业绩影响较小。2024 年，中国巨石出口占比为 25%， 其中美国市场占 15 到 16 万吨，约 10 万吨来自其美国基地，剩余 5 到 6 万吨通 过中国基地出口。因此，受影响的实际需求仅占公司整体量的 5%到 6%。假设关 税成本由巨石和海外客户各承担 17%，预计对业绩影响约为 1 亿元。然而，根 据历史数据，美国终端消费者通常承担大部分关税成本，因此实际业绩影响可 • 中国巨石通过埃及基地应对美国关税，该基地 36 万吨产能主要供给欧洲， 若美国加征关税，可调整出口策略，因埃及运往美国在经济上更具优势， 且中国尚未公布对埃及产品的税率，提供未来调整灵活性。 • 2025 年一季度玻纤市场强劲，受益于春节后库存未累积、三月风电抢装需 求明确、去年四季度新增产能集中释放压力缓解以及全年新增产能有限等 多重因素，粗纱产品价格稳中有升。 • 下半年玻纤市场需求端存在不确定性，主要来自风电和出口。风电方面， 531 电价政策变化可能影响需求比例，但招标情况良好；出口方面，美国 加征关税可能影响欧美需求，需持续跟踪 ...

April 1, 2025 10:37 AM GMT China Jushi | Asia Pacific FY24 post result NDR key takeaways Key Takeaways Management noted that price increase is basically fully executed. Jushi announced price increase for wind power roving and thermal plastic products in June last year. However, the price increase was only partly executed, given that some of the volume is locked in annual contracts. The company has settled the price increase in the new annual contract, effective from Jan 1 this year. Electronic fabric price ...

中国巨石 20250317 摘要 Q&A 玻纤行业在 2024 年和 2025 年的主要变化是什么？ 从 2024 年到 2025 年，玻纤行业的主要变化集中在供给侧产品价格的波动。 2024 年 3 月，企业首次联合提价，提升了产品附加值。尽管需求在 7 月后有所 下降，但裕山的价格从最低谷的 3,100 元/吨提升至年底的 3,700 元/吨，并稳 定在这一水平。到 2025 年，全国出厂均价又在 3,700 元基础上提升了约 100 元。 此外，粗纱、电子纱和电子布也同步提价。例如，报喜鸟于 2024 年 4 月对电子 纱和电子布进行了提价，其中电子纱每吨涨幅 600 元，电子布每米涨幅 2-3 毛 • 玻纤行业 2025 年迎来需求端细分领域增长，风电招标量大，装机预期高， 新能源汽车轻量化需求稳定增长，AI 技术发展推动消费电子、汽车电子等 高端领域对电子级玻纤的需求，预计全年量价具备较大弹性。 • 中国巨石作为玻纤行业龙头，2010 年以来营收保持增长趋势，虽 2023 年 受需求转弱影响业绩下滑，但 2024 年随供给侧竞争缓解，营收逐步回升。 受益于风电、新能源汽车及 AI 发展，预计未来营收 ...

中国巨石 20250313 摘要 Q&A 近年来玻纤行业的发展趋势如何？ 自 2020 年以来，玻纤行业经历了持续的下行趋势，这主要体现在需求端的下降 和利润率的收缩。许多企业的收入出现下滑，股价也大幅下跌。然而，尽管股 价下跌，许多公司的估值仍然不便宜。此外，一些低端产业链公司面临现金流 压力，有些甚至在去年（2024 年）最为严峻的时候寻求被并购的信息增多。整 个行业处于非常艰难的状态。 • 玻纤行业 2025 年价格持续回升，不仅限于玻纤，水泥等建筑材料价格也普 遍上涨，反映需求端下滑幅度收窄及企业利润压力下的提价意愿，但提价 的可持续性取决于行业竞争格局，集中度高的行业提价更易落地。 • 中国巨石受益于市场环境改善和自身竞争优势，规模优势和国企背景使其 在市场反内卷化中受益，风电需求超预期增长也支撑了其业务发展，预计 2025 年净利润将达到 35 亿元，高于 2024 年的 30 亿元。 • 玻纤生产线启动后需持续运行 8-10 年，企业调整供给谨慎，通过延后点火 计划或暂缓复产冷修生产线来优化供给端，2025 年预计新增有效供给约 70 万吨，需求增量约 60 万吨，供需状况预计保持平稳。 • 预 ...

Key Points Industry Overview 1. **Overall Performance**: The company's performance is on an upward trend, with sales targets for the year expected to exceed the board's annual expectations. The sales volume target of 3 million tons achieved in the semi-annual report was met, and prices have been stable and rising since the second quarter [1]. 2. **Supply and Demand Balance**: The industry's supply has increased compared to previous years, but the overall inventory level is not high. The volume is expected to catch up in the fourth quarter, with the third quarter being a low point due to price increases and insufficient demand [2]. 3. **Price Trends**: Prices have been stable and rising, although they have not yet reached a reasonable level. The overall trend is upward [1]. 4. **Industry Supply Control**: The industry has done a good job controlling supply, with actual effective production growth in 2024 being relatively low. The expected effective production increase in 2025 is expected to be slightly higher than in 2024, but the actual volume increase will not be significant [12]. 5. **Supply and Demand Match**: The industry's supply increase is expected to be around 15% in a normal year, which is roughly matched by demand. In 2025, there are some structural factors, such as the expected good performance of wind sand and hot water sand, which may affect prices [13]. Product Pricing and Demand 1. **Long-term Price of High-end Products**: The long-term price of high-end products will be implemented throughout 2025, but the specific price has not yet been agreed with customers. The price will be adjusted based on the new price once the agreement is reached [8]. 2. **Price Transmission**: The price transmission of hot melt will be better than that of other products due to demand support [4]. 3. **Market Demand**: The company is optimistic about the demand for 2025, with expectations for growth in the field of double-sided tape and hot melt. The demand for hot melt is expected to be good due to the application in automotive, infrastructure, and consumer electronics [4, 5]. 4. **Electronic Material**: The demand for electronic materials is expected to increase gradually due to the expansion of application fields such as PCB, industrial applications, and smart applications [6]. 5. **New Production Capacity**: The new production capacity of electronic materials will not be added in 2025, and the existing capacity will not be significantly increased. The expansion of the industry is relatively slow, and the inventory level is not high, which may lead to price elasticity in 2025 [7]. Industry Supply and Demand 1. **Supply Concerns**: There are concerns about supply in the industry, with the main risk factor being supply. The industry has done a good job controlling supply, with actual effective production growth in 2024 being relatively low. The expected effective production increase in 2025 is expected to be slightly higher than in 2024, but the actual volume increase will not be significant [11, 12]. 2. **Price Stability**: The company expects price stability in 2025, with prices for high-end products remaining stable and prices for cover glass and hot melt increasing slightly [13]. 3. **Price Transmission**: The price transmission of hot melt will be better than that of other products due to demand support [4]. 4. **Market Demand**: The company is optimistic about the demand for 2025, with expectations for growth in the field of double-sided tape and hot melt. The demand for hot melt is expected to be good due to the application in automotive, infrastructure, and consumer electronics [4, 5]. Other Key Points 1. **Tariff Hike Expectations**: The impact of potential tariff hikes in the US is uncertain, but the company has several plans to mitigate the impact, including further price transmission to customers, exporting to countries with no tariff barriers, and building factories in other regions [20]. 2. **Export Growth**: The company expects export growth to continue in 2025, but the specific growth rate has not been disclosed [21]. 3. **Export Tax Refund**: There is no information about the possibility of reducing the export tax refund rate for copper, aluminum, and other products, including glass fiber [21]. 4. **New Production Capacity**: The company plans to build new production capacity for electronic materials in 2026, but the specific details have not been disclosed [23]. 5. **Research and Development**: The company is developing new products and improving cost competitiveness to expand the market [24]. 6. **Price Bottom**: The price of electronic materials is at a relatively low level, and the company expects it to start rising in the future [25]. 7. **Market Demand Growth**: The growth rate of market demand for electronic materials is expected to slow down in 2025 compared to 2024, with a growth rate of a few percentage points [26]. 8. **Lightweight Frame**: The company expects the lightweight frame market to grow in 2025, with a growth rate of 100% compared to 2024. The main challenge is to improve the efficiency of material manufacturers and the acceptance of lightweight frame materials by component manufacturers [27]. 9. **Long-term Incentive Plan**: The company plans to explore and implement a long-term incentive plan to motivate employees [29]. 10. **Price Expectations**: The company expects prices to remain stable in the first half of 2025, with price increases for mid-to-high-end products [36].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to China Jushi with a 12-month target price of Rmb 11.45, while the stock price on January 15, 2025, was Rmb 11.57 [4][5][23]. Core Insights - Management is cautiously optimistic about the glass fiber market in 2025, expecting slight price increases and continued high sales growth [1][2]. - The company anticipates that electronic fabric prices will improve in 2025 due to better demand and low channel inventory, aiming for a production target of 1 billion meters of electronic fabric [2]. - The company has paused domestic capacity expansion for roving yarn and is exploring opportunities for overseas production, citing low profitability in the industry [3]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for the glass fiber market in 2025, with expectations of price increases for electronic fabrics and stable demand for roving yarn [1][2]. Production and Capacity - The company plans to produce 1 billion meters of electronic fabric in 2025, up from approximately 900 million meters in 2024, with an expected increase in unit net profit by Rmb 0.2-0.3 per square meter [2]. - Domestic new capacity construction for roving yarn has been halted, while the company is seeking opportunities for overseas expansion [3]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial projections indicating a gradual increase in dividend payout ratios from 2024 to 2026 [1]. - Revenue and profit forecasts show a slight recovery in 2025, with net profit expected to rise from Rmb 2.13 billion in 2024 to Rmb 2.27 billion in 2025 [6].

Key Points General Information - **Purpose of the Call**: The call is exclusively for clients on the white list of Guolian Securities Research Institute. It does not constitute investment advice and participants should make their own investment decisions and bear their own risks. Guolian Securities assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by participants due to the use of the call content [1]. Industry and Company Specifics - **Industry**: The specific industry or company involved is not mentioned in the provided content. - **Core Views and Arguments**: No core views or arguments are presented in the provided content. - **Other Important Content**: No other important content is provided in the given content.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2024, 80% of multinational companies achieved their performance targets, indicating strong resilience in the global economy [8] - Revenue growth in the China region for multinational companies has gradually rebounded since Q2 2023, reaching 12.1% in Q1 2024, although the revenue share has declined over the past two years [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Companies in the consumer discretionary, pharmaceuticals, and TMT sectors show strong willingness to increase spending [9] - Capital expenditure intentions are strong among companies, particularly in sectors expecting demand recovery, such as consumer discretionary and healthcare [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall sentiment towards the Chinese market remains optimistic, with companies recognizing the vast potential despite concerns over consumer confidence and policy effectiveness [9] - Semiconductor giants like ASML and QUALCOMM highlight significant demand for high-end chips from China, which continues to drive the industry [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Multinational companies are optimistic about the opportunities in the Chinese market, with a focus on the recovery of consumer confidence and the effectiveness of growth-stabilizing policies [9] - Companies are increasing capital expenditures in anticipation of demand recovery, particularly in sectors like consumer goods and healthcare [10] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expresses optimism for the second half of the year, despite uncertainties from geopolitical issues and elections, indicating that these factors have limited impact on operational confidence [9] - Companies are focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements, leveraging AI and digital technologies to enhance productivity and reduce costs [24][27] Other Important Information - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to drive significant increases in capital expenditures, particularly in the information technology sector [10] - Companies are adopting various cost control measures, including optimizing operations and investing in technology to enhance efficiency [24][27] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for capital expenditures in the coming year? - Companies are generally increasing capital expenditures, with many prioritizing investments in high-growth areas and infrastructure to support demand recovery [10] Question: How are companies addressing cost control? - Many companies are focusing on reducing labor costs and improving operational efficiency through technology and process optimization [24][27]