中国巨石 20250911 摘要 2024 下半年玻纤行业新增产能主要集中在粗纱领域，虽产能规划始于 2021-2022 年，但实际产量增长有限，预计 2025 年新增产量接近 100 万吨，约占全球粗纱需求的 10%，2026 年新增产能增速将放缓。 粗纱需求端受益于风电抢装，预计 2024 年风电装机量达 110GW，风 电玻纤纱需求增速超 30%。交通运输、工业设备及光伏边框等领域需求 亦保持增长，抵消了建筑建材领域增速放缓的影响，预计全年粗纱整体 需求增速约为 7.1%。 7,628 电子布方面，2024 年台嘉玻纤成都二期项目带来 4.5 万吨增量， 总新增 12 万吨，供给冲击约 7%-8%。下游覆铜板受 AI 等新兴应用带 动，预计 2024 年需求增长 5%-6%。 当前玻纤市场供需基本平衡，库存小幅增加，但厂商维稳价格意愿强烈， 预计全年价格保持稳定。中小厂商虽有提价意愿，但大厂未跟进，市场 价格稳定。 中国巨石在成本端、能耗端、管理及财务费用方面均具备显著优势，使 其单吨净利领先同行，高端产品如风电纱、热塑、电子纱占比提升至 85%，进一步提升盈利能力。 Q&A 中国巨石在玻纤行业中的地位 ...

从中国巨石看行业反内卷 20250909 摘要 中国巨石认为玻纤产业整体产销平衡良好，需求持续增长，市场未出现 严重过剩压力，通过调整产品结构，释放中低端市场份额，缓解了该品 类竞争格局。 公司对中低端市场做出适当让步，将部分产能转向高端风电产品，但短 期内无法完全满足需求，采取缓慢释放策略，同时头部企业类似调整缓 解了中低端竞争。 小企业提价函发布后，若供需关系稳定，提价易实现；若需求减弱，需 控产或停产。公司今年价格实际上涨，呼吁小企业避免过度竞争以维护 市场稳定。 市场格局变化主因是新进入者试图抢占份额，大企业未显著降价，中小 企业受冲击较大。行业协会倡导措施改善中小企业格局，预计 2025 年 玻纤需求增长乐观。 海外业务方面，埃及效益良好，美国市场 2024 年亏损，但预计 2025 年利润将超过 5,000 万，得益于多次提价。公司计划在"十五"期间增 加海外产能。 Q&A 中国巨石如何看待玻纤行业的反内卷问题？ 玻纤行业自今年年初以来，国家一直在推动反内卷的相关安排，并逐步在不同 的行业中落地。玻纤行业与其他产业不同，其需求持续增长，因此不存在明显 的供过于求问题。作为龙头企业，中国巨石一直致力 ...

Flash | 03 Sep 2025 10:38:45 ET │ 10 pages China Jushi (600176.SS) Takeaways from Post 1H25 Results Group Meeting CITI'S TAKE We attended China Jushi's post 1H25 results group meeting in Conrad today. Mr. Yang Guoming, CEO, presented at the meeting. Mmgt remains optimistic on the 2026E outlook for glass fiber and E-fabric business whilst positively catching up in the low-DK market, which we believe is more of a nice-to-have segment for Jushi with relatively small profit scale and limited overall contributio ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the electronic fabric industry, specifically focusing on companies like China Jushi, Guangyuan New Materials, and Jiantao Group, which are involved in the production of various types of electronic fabrics and materials [1][3][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments China Jushi - China Jushi has rapidly expanded its market share in the electronic fabric sector through a comprehensive technology coverage strategy, including first-generation, second-generation low dielectric fabrics, low expansion fabrics, and Q fabrics [1][3]. - The company possesses over 10,000 weaving machines, significantly surpassing competitors, and is advancing its production capabilities using both pool kiln and crucible methods for second-generation fabric production [3][10]. - The company is focusing on improving its competitiveness in the second-generation fabric market, where supply is currently scarce, and aims to achieve breakthroughs in production technology [4][14]. Guangyuan New Materials - Guangyuan New Materials holds the highest market share in the electronic fabric sector, leveraging mature pool kiln technology and a strong thin fabric business to enter the special electronic fabric market [1][5]. - The company has achieved stable supply and rapid expansion in the first-generation low dielectric fabric market, with an expected sixfold increase in production capacity by the end of 2025 [5]. - Guangyuan's production costs are significantly lower (30% to 40%) compared to traditional methods, which positions it favorably despite challenges in the third-generation Q fabric market [5][10]. Jiantao Group - Jiantao Group is actively developing special electronic yarn production, planning to build ten special AI electronic yarn production lines, with the first low dielectric kiln already operational [6][7]. - The company plans to add six more kilns in 2026, indicating rapid industry growth and a strategic move to enhance competitiveness in the high-speed board market through upstream material supply chain integration [7][9]. - Jiantao's strategy includes reducing reliance on external supply chains, thereby lowering risks associated with supply disruptions [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The first-generation fabric market is experiencing strong supply and demand, with some companies raising prices in August 2025, indicating rapid industry expansion [13]. - The supply-demand balance for second-generation and low expansion fabrics remains tight, with companies striving for stable, high-yield production to gain competitive advantages [14]. - The quartz fabric sector is characterized by a diverse range of participants, with a low entry barrier due to the separation of the drawing and weaving processes, leading to increased specialization [15]. Emerging Risks and Opportunities - There is a potential risk of price competition in the industry, prompting companies to seek cost-optimized technology routes, with pool kiln technology becoming the mainstream choice due to its cost advantages [2][12]. - The industry is expected to face challenges in meeting demand, particularly for second-generation fabrics, with predictions of supply shortages by 2026 [19][22]. - New emerging companies, such as China Yushi and Linzhou Guangyuan, are noted for their unique strengths and are expected to play significant roles in future competition [20]. Conclusion - The electronic fabric industry is poised for rapid growth, driven by technological advancements and strategic expansions by key players. However, companies must navigate potential risks related to supply shortages and price competition while capitalizing on emerging opportunities in the market [21][22].

Summary of the Conference Call for China Jushi (2025 H1) Industry Overview - The glass fiber yarn production in China increased by 4.9% year-on-year in H1 2025, despite approximately 510,000 tons of capacity being offline due to maintenance of magnetic kiln production lines [2][3] - The global glass fiber industry is undergoing consolidation, with major players like OCR and PPG exiting the market, and the closure of the largest glass fiber plant in the UK, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese companies [2][3] Market Demand - Significant growth in various segments: - Wind power installed capacity increased by 18% globally, with China's wind power capacity surging by 98.9% [2][5] - Total automobile production rose by 10.8%, with new energy vehicle production up by 36.2% [2][5] - Retail sales of home appliances grew by 30.7% [2][5] - Infrastructure investment increased by 4.6%, while real estate investment declined by 11.2% [2][5] Company Performance - The company adopted a "volume + added value" strategy, achieving sales of 1.5822 million tons of yarn and products, a nearly 4% increase [2][6] - Revenue reached 9.109 billion yuan, a 17.7% increase; total profit was 2.119 billion yuan, up 83%; net profit was 1.758 billion yuan, up 78%; and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 170% [2][7] - Operating cash flow was 1.4 billion yuan, with total assets of 53.7 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio below 40% [2][7] Strategic Focus - The company plans to focus on "one increase, one decrease, four enhancements, and one optimization" in H2 2025, emphasizing sales priority, cost reduction, innovation, and strengthening competitive advantages [2][9] - The company anticipates stable to rising glass fiber prices, supported by policies regulating local government investments and a slowdown in new entrants [2][10][11] Competitive Landscape - The company noted that new entrants are slowing down their investments due to poor profitability, indicating a more rational supply environment [2][12] - The gross profit per ton of yarn has recovered to over 900 yuan, with overseas factories showing good profitability and expansion plans [2][13] Financial Management - The company has strengthened investor relations, with major shareholders increasing their stakes by 1.6 billion yuan, and plans to implement a mid-term dividend of 600 million yuan [2][8] - The company aims to enhance its market value management by improving operational performance and engaging with investors [2][22][23] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the future demand for glass fiber, particularly in wind power and automotive sectors, while maintaining a stable supply capacity [2][24] - Plans for expansion in both domestic and international markets are underway, with a focus on high-end electronic fabrics and special products [2][18][21] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is positive, with the company positioned to capitalize on market growth while managing risks associated with competition and pricing strategies. The focus on innovation and efficiency is expected to drive future performance.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Jushi is "Overweight" [4] - The industry view is considered "Attractive" [4] Core Insights - China Jushi expects its net profit for the first half of 2025 to increase by 72-77% year-on-year, reaching between Rmb1.65 billion and Rmb1.70 billion, with the second quarter net earnings projected to be between Rmb920 million and Rmb970 million, surpassing market expectations of Rmb815 million [1][2] - The increase in earnings is attributed to higher sales volumes for both roving and electronic fabric, which grew by 4% and 6% year-on-year, respectively, alongside price increases of approximately 11% for traditional roving and around 15% for electronic fabric [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, sales volumes reached 1.59 million tons for roving and 485 million meters for electronic fabric [1] - The company anticipates solid earnings in 2H25 despite potential near-term price pressures due to increased market supply from new capacities and resumed production [2] Market Outlook - The report indicates that strong demand in 1H25 has led to the introduction of new capacities totaling 780,000 tons, which may exert downward pressure on roving prices in the near term [2] - However, the improved product structure and cost performance are expected to mitigate the impact of subdued prices on earnings [2] Valuation Metrics - The price target for China Jushi is set at Rmb14.50, indicating a 19% upside from the current price of Rmb12.17 [4] - The market capitalization is currently Rmb48.72 billion, with an average daily trading value of Rmb312 million [4]

Summary of China Jushi Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi (Ticker: 600176.SS) - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Market Cap**: Rmb 47,918 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: Rmb 13.60 - **Current Price (as of April 7, 2025)**: Rmb 11.97 - **52-Week Range**: Rmb 8.80 - 13.25 Key Financial Highlights - **1Q25 Net Profit**: Expected to double YoY to Rmb 701-736 million, exceeding expectations [1] - **Excluding Non-Recurring Items**: Net profit increased by 320-350% YoY to Rmb 538-589 million [1] - **Earnings Drivers**: Higher prices for roving and electronic fabric, increased sales volume driven by strong downstream demand, particularly from wind power and automotive sectors [1] Industry Dynamics - **Roving Price Increases**: Implemented due to improved industry fundamentals, with prices for wind power roving up over 10% [2] - **Volume Growth**: Anticipated 6% YoY increase in volumes, supported by new production lines at the Jiujiang production base [2] - **Production Line Update**: The second 100kt production line in Jiujiang commenced operations ahead of schedule in April [2] - **Cost Management**: Production costs are expected to decrease by 3% YoY, contributing to earnings recovery [2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: Rmb 14,876 million - 2024: Rmb 18,057 million - 2025: Rmb 19,618 million - 2026: Rmb 21,211 million [4] - **EBITDA Forecast**: - 2023: Rmb 4,609 million - 2024: Rmb 4,081 million - 2025: Rmb 4,860 million - 2026: Rmb 6,097 million [4] - **EPS Forecast**: - 2023: Rmb 0.76 - 2024: Rmb 0.54 - 2025: Rmb 0.67 - 2026: Rmb 0.90 [4] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Better-than-expected demand, decreasing raw material prices [9] - **Downside Risks**: Global demand slowdown, rising raw material prices, industry overcapacity [9] Analyst Insights - **Earnings Momentum**: The company is expected to maintain strong earnings momentum throughout 2025 due to favorable market conditions and operational efficiencies [2] - **Investment Thesis**: The combination of higher prices, increased volumes, and lower production costs positions China Jushi for a solid earnings recovery [2] Conclusion China Jushi's strong financial performance in 1Q25, driven by favorable market conditions and operational improvements, suggests a positive outlook for the company. The anticipated growth in revenue and earnings, alongside effective cost management, reinforces the investment thesis for the stock.

Summary of China Jushi Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi - **Industry**: Glass Fiber Industry Key Points Impact of US Tariffs - The direct impact of US tariffs on China Jushi's performance is minimal, with exports accounting for 25% of total sales in 2024, and only 5% to 6% of overall demand being affected by tariffs [3][5] - The company expects a potential performance impact of approximately 100 million yuan if tariff costs are shared equally between Jushi and overseas customers [3] - Jushi plans to leverage its Egyptian facility to mitigate tariff impacts, as it is more economically viable to export from Egypt to the US [3][5] Market Performance and Trends - The glass fiber market showed strong performance in Q1 2025 due to several factors, including no inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and clear demand for wind power installations [6] - The market faces uncertainties in H2 2025, particularly from wind power demand and export challenges due to US tariffs [7] Wind Power Fiber Market - The wind power fiber market is highly concentrated, with a CR3 of 100%, dominated by Jushi, SMIC, and OC [8] - Jushi has made significant breakthroughs in this sector and can adjust production schedules effectively [8] Export Expectations - Export growth is expected to slow to single digits in 2025, down from 10%-13% in 2024, with wind power and new energy vehicles being the main export products [9] European Infrastructure Demand - Increased infrastructure demand in Europe, driven by significant investment plans from Germany and the EU, is expected to boost demand for excavation equipment [10] - Jushi has a market exposure of approximately 12%-13% in Europe, with its Egyptian plant contributing about 20% to total profits [10] Inventory and Price Trends - As of March 2025, glass fiber inventory decreased to 797,000 tons, indicating a healthy market environment with limited supply pressure [11] - The net profit per ton is expected to exceed 800 yuan for the year, supported by stable demand and limited supply [11] Electronic Fabric Market - The production of electronic fabric is projected to increase from 875 million meters last year to between 900 million and 1.1 billion meters this year, with price increases expected due to limited supply [12] Overall Performance Expectations - For 2025, Jushi anticipates total revenue of 3.2 to 3.3 billion yuan, driven by stable demand and potential price increases in high-end products [13]

Summary of China Jushi Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi (Ticker: 600176.SS) - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Market Cap**: Rmb51,841 million - **Current Stock Price**: Rmb12.95 - **Price Target**: Rmb13.60, indicating a 5% upside potential [6][6] Key Takeaways Price Increases and Contracts - Price increases for wind power roving and thermal plastic products were announced in June last year, with full execution expected from January 1, 2025, due to annual contracts [2][2][8][8] - The price increase for wind power roving is reported to be greater than 10% [8][8] Production Adjustments - A 20% cut in electronic fabric capacity was implemented starting from Q4 2024, resulting in a reduction of approximately 80 million meters in total production [3][3] - All suspended capacity resumed production in March 2025, which is expected to improve utilization and cost efficiency, potentially lowering production costs by approximately Rmb0.2 per meter [3][3] Growth Expectations - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6-7% during the 15th Five-Year Plan, with plans for an additional 400,000 tons in Egypt and 100,000 tons in the US, alongside 1GW of renewable energy [4][4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the upcoming fiscal years are as follows: - FY24: Rmb18,057 million - FY25: Rmb19,618 million - FY26: Rmb21,211 million [6][6] - Expected earnings per share (EPS) for FY24 is Rmb0.54, with projections of Rmb0.67 for FY25 and Rmb0.90 for FY26 [6][6] Valuation and Risks - The valuation methodology is based on discounted cash flow with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.1% and a steady-state growth rate of 4% [9][9] - Risks to upside include better-than-expected demand and decreasing raw material prices, while downside risks involve a global demand slowdown and rising raw material prices [11][11] Additional Insights - The company is focusing on cost reduction strategies to achieve a gross profit target of Rmb1 per meter for electronic fabric [8][8] - The average daily trading value of the stock is Rmb344 million, indicating active trading interest [6][6] This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial outlook, and market positioning.

Summary of the Conference Call for China Jushi Industry Overview - The fiberglass industry is expected to experience significant changes from 2024 to 2025, primarily driven by fluctuations in supply-side product prices [3] - In March 2024, companies initiated a joint price increase, enhancing product value, with prices for Yushan rising from 3,100 RMB/ton to 3,700 RMB/ton by the end of the year [3] - By 2025, the national factory price is projected to increase by approximately 100 RMB on top of the 3,700 RMB baseline [3] - Demand growth is anticipated in segmented areas such as wind power, new energy vehicles, and high-end electronics driven by AI technology [3][5] Company Performance - China Jushi, as a leading player in the fiberglass industry, has maintained a growth trend in revenue since 2010, despite a decline in 2023 due to weakened demand [3][7] - The company is expected to gradually recover its revenue in 2024 as supply-side competition eases [3][7] - The business structure shows that over 82% of revenue comes from roving and products, with significant growth in overseas markets through exports to Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia [3][8] Financial Metrics - From 2022 to 2024, China Jushi's profitability was pressured by industry supply-demand dynamics, with gross and net profit margins declining [10] - However, margins are expected to recover in 2024 as product value and downstream demand improve, with operating cash flow showing a net inflow [10] - The gross profit margin hit a near ten-year low of 20.13% in Q1 2024 but is projected to improve as demand recovers [10] Inventory and Pricing Trends - Fiberglass inventory surged from 20,000 tons in 2018 to approximately 90,000 tons by Q1 2024 due to weak demand and new project launches [11] - Price increases for fiberglass products are expected to continue, with direct yarn prices rising significantly to around 3,800 RMB/ton by the end of 2024 [12] - The demand for fiberglass is projected to remain elastic in 2025, supported by growth in wind power, automotive, and construction sectors [5][12] Market Dynamics - The global fiberglass market is characterized by high concentration, with the top six companies holding over 70% of the capacity [16] - China Jushi holds a 24% market share in the electronic yarn segment, with significant growth expected in high-end applications [17][19] - The company has a competitive edge in high-end products, with 85% of its offerings being high-end, and maintains a cost advantage over peers [19] Future Outlook - Revenue growth is anticipated, with projections of 192 billion RMB and 208 billion RMB for the current and next year, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20.6% and 8.1% [20] - Net profit is expected to reach 30 billion RMB and 35.6 billion RMB, indicating growth of 47.6% and 18.3% [20] - Overall, China Jushi is well-positioned to benefit from recovering demand in wind power, new energy vehicles, and AI applications, with limited new supply expected to enhance profitability [20]