中国巨石 20260122 摘要 玻纤行业正处于底部向上阶段，但尚未达到周期山腰位置，以 2,400 tex 粗纱为例，价格虽有回升但波动较大，中国巨石粗砂扣非单吨净利 润约为 900 元/吨，仅略高于上一轮周期底部，距离历史高位仍有较大 差距。 预计 2026 年粗纱新增产量约为 50-60 万吨，供给端增速约 5.8%，相 对可控。中国巨石、内蒙古天浩等新增产线将在 2026 年释放更多增量， 但整体供需有望维持平衡。 中国巨石积极布局 AI 电子布产品，提升估值弹性及业绩确定性。公司在 传统玻纤粗纱、电子纱及 AI 电子布方面均具有发展潜力，未来有望取得 显著成果。 玻纤行业竞争格局发生变化，新管理层对价格态度更温和，推动价格回 升。中国巨石粗砂扣非单吨净利润虽仍偏低，但随着反内卷及协同推进， 价格逐步修复，2026 年业绩支撑更加稳固。 2026 年电子厂产线变动主要集中在国际辅材和中国巨石。预计 2025 和 2026 年电子纱新增总产量约为 10 万吨，2026 年增速约为 6.2%， 较前一年有所放缓。 Q&A 中国巨石在 AI 电子布方面的发展前景如何？ 中国巨石在 AI 电子布领域的发展前景 ...

中国巨石 20260120 摘要 AI 发展挤占传统电子布市场，导致 7,628 电子布需求下降，类似于 AI 驱动 DDR 内存涨价的逻辑。 织布机供应短缺加剧电子布结构性矛盾，企业倾向于将有限的织布机产 能用于生产利润更高的 AI 相关电子布产品，而非传统 7,628 电子布。 传统 7,628 电子纱窑炉产能无法直接转产 AI 相关产品，部分企业将 7,628 电子纱生产设备转向 AI 产品，进一步减少 7,628 供应。 中国巨石、建涛、中材泰玻等主要厂商积极扩展低阶电库存并转向 AI 领 域，预计传统机械链上的新增量将减少。 TCL 等企业受铜价上涨影响显著，缺乏定价权导致利润受损。目前电子 布已开始提价，预计春节前后全产业链将进入提价阶段。 供给端中材泰山、光远等企业因转向 AI 领域导致减产 30%-40%，需求 端虽消费电子等领域数据不佳，但 AI 增量显著，整体需求预计保持正增 长。 B 店板块产业趋势明确，2026-2027 年二代布和 Q 布边际发货量增加， 全系列锂电池及普通 PCB 也将提价，全产业链因 AI 挤占进入涨价阶段。 Q&A TCL 在 2024 年之前的表现如何，以及其 ...

Action | 18 Jan 2026 17:52:14 ET │ 14 pages China Jushi (600176.SS) TP raising to Rmb26.1/sh post E-fabric price hike CITI'S TAKE Buy | Catalyst Watch: Upside | | | --- | --- | | Price (16 Jan 26 15:00) | Rmb18.780 | | Target price | Rmb26.100↑ | | from Rmb19.800 | | | Expected share price return | 39.0% | | Expected dividend yield | 1.9% | | Expected total return | 40.8% | | Market Cap | Rmb75,179M | | | US$10,788M | Anna WangAC +852-2501-2739 anna.d.wang@citi.com Jack Shang, CFA +852-2501-2441 jack.shang@ ...

Summary of China Jushi 2026 Business Outlook Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi (600176.SS) - **Date of Call**: January 12, 2026 - **Participants**: Mr. Ding Chengche (Board Secretary), Ms. Xu Mengdan (IR Director) Key Industry Insights - **Cyclical Outlook**: Management anticipates 2024 as the cycle trough, 2025 as a recovery year, and 2026 as a favorable year with resilient demand and moderated supply growth [3][15] - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: Expected supply growth of approximately 500,000 tons in 2026 compared to around 1 million tons in 2025. Demand growth in 2026 is estimated at around 6%, with potential upside to 8-9% [3][15] Financial Performance - **Fiberglass Profitability**: Profitability has stabilized at a higher level, with net profit per ton consistently exceeding RMB 800, currently around RMB 900-1000. Most peer producers are near breakeven [4][12] - **E-fabric Demand**: A broad-based recovery in E-fabric demand has been observed, with profitability exceeding RMB 1/sqm. Management expects to maintain this level in 2026 [5][13] Strategic Initiatives - **Capex Discipline**: Capital expenditures remain stable at RMB 3-5 billion, with maintenance capex capped at approximately RMB 1 billion [11] - **Low DK Fabrics**: Progress is being made in low DK products, with ongoing customer validation. Challenges remain in yield rates and process stability [8] Market Outlook - **Overseas Demand**: After a weak 2025 due to geopolitical factors, overseas demand is expected to recover in 2026, with exports guided at approximately 1.1 million tons and total shipments at around 3.3 million tons [9][10] - **US Plant Performance**: The US plant was loss-making in 2024 but significantly improved in 2025, with expected profitability in 2026 under current tariff conditions [10] Pricing Strategy - **Glassfiber Pricing**: Annual contract pricing is under negotiation, with moderate price increases expected. Jushi is avoiding aggressive price hikes to prevent triggering excess capacity [4][12] Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: Include weaker-than-expected demand for glass fiber products, rising energy costs, and greater-than-expected capacity additions [15] - **Upside Risks**: Include better-than-expected demand and supply-side discipline that could help protect margins [15] Valuation - **Target Price**: The target price for Jushi is set at RMB 19.8/share, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8x on 2026 estimated net income [14] Conclusion - The call reinforces a more constructive medium-term outlook for China Jushi, with a recommendation to maintain a "Buy" rating based on the anticipated recovery and growth in demand for fiberglass and E-fabric products [1][6]

Summary of China Jushi 3Q25 Post Result Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi (Ticker: 600176.SS) - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Market Cap**: Rmb63,129.5 million - **Current Share Price**: Rmb15.77 (as of October 24, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb19.20 - **Stock Rating**: Overweight Key Takeaways Capacity and Production - Limited capacity increases are expected in 2026, including: - 200kt new capacity in Huai'an starting mid-2026 - 60kt incremental capacity from the upgrade of the Tongxiang line - 100kt new electronic fabric capacity in Huai'an commencing in 2026 - Construction of 200kt capacity in Chengdu expected to start late 2025 or early 2026 - Overall supply increase for 2026 will be limited due to maintenance on the 180kt line in Tongxiang and potential maintenance in Egypt [2][4] Product Development - High-end electronic fabric is projected to reach commercial production in 1Q26 - Generation one and two low-dielectric electronic fabric products are under innovation, with generation 1 products currently in the certification process [3] Financial Performance - Net profit per ton (NP/t) slightly decreased QoQ in 3Q25 to over Rmb800/t, attributed to lower earnings from Europe and the US - Roving sales volume increased by 10% YoY to 809.7kt, while electronic fabric sales volume surged 73% YoY and 24% QoQ to 294 million meters - The percentage of overseas sales volume decreased to approximately one-third, mainly due to softened demand from the EU [4][8] Market Demand - Demand for solar modules is increasing but at a slower pace, with expectations to surpass 3GW in 2026 compared to around 2GW in 2025 - The slow demand increase is attributed to intense competition with aluminum frame producers, as aluminum is recyclable [4] Pricing and Costs - Average selling prices (ASP) for roving and electronic fabric increased by 6% YoY and 5% YoY, but slightly dropped QoQ due to higher industry supply - Costs declined in 3Q25 due to technical upgrades rather than management expense cuts - Price increases are anticipated in 2026 to counteract potential higher costs, including labor and raw material prices [8] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: - Better-than-expected demand - Decreasing raw material prices - **Downside Risks**: - Global demand slowdown - Rising raw material prices - Industry overcapacity [11] Conclusion China Jushi is positioned for moderate growth with planned capacity expansions and product innovations. However, the company faces challenges from competitive pressures and fluctuating demand in key markets. The financial outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by strong sales volumes and strategic pricing adjustments.

Summary of China Jushi's 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi (Ticker: 600176.SS) - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Market Cap**: Rmb63,450 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: Rmb19.10, representing a 21% upside from the current price of Rmb15.85 as of October 21, 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **Net Profit**: Increased by 68% YoY to Rmb2.6 billion for the first nine months of 2025 - **3Q25 Earnings**: Reported at Rmb881 million, a 54% increase YoY but down 8% QoQ, exceeding the estimate of Rmb803 million - **Recurring Net Earnings**: Up 73% YoY to Rmb911 million in 3Q25, excluding one-off items - **Sales Volume Growth**: Total sales volume for roving and electronic fabric increased by 10% YoY and 73% YoY to 810kt and 294 million meters, respectively [1][7] - **Gross Margin**: Narrowed to 33% in 3Q25 due to a slight drop in average selling price (ASP) [1] - **Net Gearing**: Increased to 37% in 3Q25 from 29% at the end of June [1] - **Finance Costs**: Rose by 10% YoY in 3Q25 [1] Future Outlook - **4Q25 Expectations**: Anticipated strong sales due to the traditional peak consumption season for glass fiber in the second half of 2025 - **Price Increases**: Electronic fabric prices have risen post-National holiday due to tight supply - **Product Development**: The company is advancing high-end D/E series electronic fabric production, which is expected to optimize the product portfolio [2] Quarterly Earnings Summary (3Q25) | Metric | 3Q25 (Rmb million) | YoY Change | QoQ Change | |-----------------------|---------------------|------------|------------| | Revenue | 4,795 | 23% | 4% | | Gross Profit | 1,574 | 43% | 0% | | EBIT | 1,173 | 67% | 2% | | Net Income | 881 | 54% | -8% | | EPS | 0.22 | 54% | -8% | | Net Margin | 18% | 3.7ppt | -2.3ppt | | EBIT Margin | 24% | 6.5ppt | -0.5ppt | | SG&A % of Revenue | 7% | 1.6ppt | 0.4ppt | [3] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Better-than-expected demand and decreasing raw material prices - **Downside Risks**: Global demand slowdown, rising raw material prices, and industry overcapacity [10] Conclusion China Jushi's strong financial performance in 3Q25, driven by significant sales volume growth and effective cost management, positions the company favorably for continued success in the upcoming quarters. The anticipated demand in the glass fiber market and advancements in product offerings further enhance the investment thesis for China Jushi.

Summary of China Jushi Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi - **Industry**: Fiberglass manufacturing Key Points Strategic Shifts - China Jushi has shifted its competitive strategy from price competition to collaborative price increases, focusing on cash flow preservation and high-end transformation, particularly in the wind power sand and thermoplastic sand sectors [2][4][19] - The company aims to capture a 15% market share in the specialty electronic fabric market by the end of 2025, providing significant potential for value reassessment [2][5] Execution Capability - There are mixed opinions in the market regarding China Jushi's execution capabilities, with concerns about its strategic implementation. However, the company has demonstrated strong execution through breakthroughs in drug-holding technology and rapid advancements in the wind power sand sector, achieving the world's leading production capacity [2][6] Cost Advantages - China Jushi possesses significant cost advantages in the specialty electronic fabric sector, with production costs for drug-holding technology being 30-50% lower than traditional methods. The company excels in technological breakthroughs, which may lead to competitive advantages in this field [2][7][16][17] Market Dynamics - The fiberglass industry traditionally relies on cyclical growth, with product prices serving as a key indicator of market conditions. China Jushi's stock price is primarily driven by changes in profit expectations related to pricing, with valuation turning points typically leading price movements [2][8][9] - The demand for wind power installations is expected to surge in 2025, with optimistic prospects for fiberglass yarn exports and increased penetration of photovoltaic frames, contributing to potential demand growth [2][10] Financial Projections - Projected net profit for China Jushi is approximately 3.66 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.35 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 50% and 19%, respectively. The corresponding PE ratios are 19x and 16x, indicating room for valuation improvement [4][23] Supply and Demand Outlook - Demand growth for fiberglass is expected to be stable, with projected year-on-year growth rates of 6.4% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026. Supply pressures are anticipated to ease as some manufacturers begin maintenance plans [10][11][13] - The average price of ordinary 2,400 TEX winding yarn has reached around 3,600 yuan, with potential for further price increases as industry leaders may initiate price recovery [14] Share Buyback Plan - The company announced a plan to repurchase 30-40 million shares, representing 0.7-1% of total shares, to support employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives. This reflects management's strong confidence in the company's long-term value and new business prospects [24] Conclusion - China Jushi is positioned for optimistic growth in the fiberglass industry, driven by strategic shifts towards high-end products, strong execution capabilities, and favorable market dynamics. The company's cost advantages and proactive financial strategies further enhance its investment appeal [2][4][10][23]

Summary of China Jushi Conference Call Industry Overview - The fiberglass industry is expected to see new capacity concentrated in the roving sector in the second half of 2024, with actual production growth remaining limited despite planning starting in 2021-2022. It is anticipated that new production will approach 1 million tons by 2025, accounting for about 10% of global roving demand. The growth rate of new capacity is expected to slow down in 2026 [2][4][12]. - Demand for roving is benefiting from wind power installations, with an expected installation capacity of 110 GW in 2024, leading to a demand growth rate exceeding 30% for wind power fiberglass yarn. Other sectors such as transportation, industrial equipment, and photovoltaic frames are also experiencing growth, offsetting the slowdown in the construction materials sector, with an overall demand growth rate for roving projected at approximately 7.1% for the year [2][5]. Company Insights - China Jushi is positioned as a leading player in the global fiberglass industry, currently in an upward cycle that is releasing profit elasticity. The company holds significant market shares in both roving and electronic yarn (such as 7628 electronic cloth) [3][4]. - The company has a notable cost advantage, with a single-ton net profit leading its peers, driven by high-end products like wind power yarn, thermoplastics, and electronic yarn, which now account for 85% of its revenue [2][10][11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to see significant new capacity in the second half of 2024, primarily due to proactive planning by manufacturers during 2021-2022. However, actual production growth will not be significant until 2025, with new production lines expected to decrease in 2026 [4][5]. - The overall supply-demand situation in the fiberglass market is currently balanced, with slight inventory increases. Manufacturers are determined to maintain price stability, with expectations for prices to remain stable throughout the year [6][9]. Pricing Strategy - China Jushi and the industry as a whole have a strong consensus on maintaining price stability. Recent price increase initiatives by smaller manufacturers have not been followed by larger companies, indicating a stable pricing environment [6][7]. - The company's pricing strategy is based on excess profits, with a significant portion of its profits attributed to its competitive edge over peers, estimated at 8,000 to 10,000 RMB per ton [14]. Future Potential and Market Valuation - China Jushi's future development potential remains strong, with plans to capture approximately 15% of the special electronic cloth market within five years. The market has not fully priced this business yet, indicating significant future growth potential [15][16]. - The estimated market valuation for China Jushi is currently between 50 billion to 60 billion RMB, which is considered reasonable based on the current cycle state and does not account for the potential of the special electronic cloth business [12][16]. Competitive Advantages - China Jushi's competitive advantages include: 1. Cost advantages, with lower raw material costs compared to peers, leading to lower production costs [10][13]. 2. Energy efficiency, with lower natural gas costs due to larger kiln scales and favorable regional pricing [10]. 3. Management and financial expenses that are lower than competitors, contributing to a strong financial position [13]. 4. A focus on high-end products, which enhances profitability [11][13]. This comprehensive overview highlights the key aspects of China Jushi's current market position, industry dynamics, and future potential, providing insights for potential investors and stakeholders.

Summary of Conference Call on China Jushi Industry Overview - The fiberglass industry is experiencing a balanced supply and demand situation, with continuous growth in demand and no significant oversupply pressure observed [2][29] - The market dynamics are influenced by new entrants attempting to capture market share, while leading companies have not significantly reduced prices, impacting smaller enterprises more severely [6][29] Company Adjustments and Strategies - China Jushi has made adjustments in the low-end market by reallocating some production capacity towards high-end wind power products, although it cannot fully meet demand in the short term [3][4] - The company has called for small enterprises to avoid excessive competition to maintain market stability, especially after price increases were implemented [6][8] - The company anticipates a recovery in export demand by 2026, despite current declines due to trade tensions and inventory issues in the U.S. market [10][11] Financial Performance and Projections - In 2025, the U.S. market is expected to generate profits exceeding 50 million, benefiting from multiple price increases [9] - The company’s revenue from its subsidiary in Huai'an reached over 90 million with a net profit of 50 million in the first half of 2025, with a full-year profit target of over 100 million [25] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The fiberglass demand is expected to grow optimistically by 2025, particularly in the wind power sector, despite some supply constraints [7][18] - The company is optimistic about the wind power market in 2026, expecting no drastic declines in demand [18][19] - The overall fiberglass price trend for 2026 remains uncertain, but a significant drop is unlikely due to stable supply-demand conditions [28] Research and Development - The AI electronics division is focusing on developing low dielectric glass formulations and has made progress in both upstream and downstream processes [13][14][21] - The company is exploring different production techniques, favoring pool kiln technology over dry kiln methods for better stability and efficiency [16][30] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the wind power fiber market remains dominated by a few leading companies, with new entrants like Changhai and Shanbo having limited market impact so far [23] - The company is well-positioned in the AI electronics market, with potential revenues projected to reach 30 billion RMB by 2027-2028 [30] Regulatory Environment - The classification of fiberglass as a "dual high" industry by some provinces may impose restrictions on new projects, potentially benefiting the overall industry development [5] Conclusion - China Jushi is navigating a complex market landscape with strategic adjustments to production, a focus on high-demand sectors, and a commitment to maintaining market stability amidst competitive pressures and regulatory challenges. The outlook for growth in both domestic and international markets appears positive, with significant opportunities in the AI electronics sector.

Summary of China Jushi (600176.SS) Post 1H25 Results Group Meeting Company Overview - **Company**: China Jushi - **Industry**: Glass Fiber and E-fabric Key Points 1. Optimistic Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the 2026E outlook for glass fiber and E-fabric business, while catching up in the low-DK market, which is considered a minor segment with limited profit contribution [1][2] 2. Glass Fiber Market Dynamics - Stronger demand in 2025 driven by wind power and thermoplastics, despite low-end pricing pressures - Year-over-year growth observed in July-August, with a positive outlook for Q4 and 2026E - New demand from PV frame penetration expected to boost demand in 2026E - Jushi employs a strict "sell-what-you-produce" pricing strategy and is selectively exiting low-end market segments [2][3] 3. E-fabric Performance - Volume and price performance exceeded expectations this year - A second-round price hike was paused due to a drop in copper prices from Rmb80k to Rmb70k - Management remains positive on price outlook for 2026E [3] 4. Specialty Glass Fiber - The current market is in an early stage with demand exceeding supply - Sinoma S&T targets a capacity of 120 million tons, with the total market expected at 200 million tons - Jushi aims to achieve a 15% market share for new products by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan [3] 5. Overseas Capacity Expansion - Current capacity stands at 50,000 tons, with an additional 50,000 tons planned as CNBM is set to build more facilities overseas - Overseas demand growth is primarily driven by Asia, with notable increases in Mexico, Canada, and the Middle East - European thermoplastic demand is soft due to EV slowdown, while U.S. and Egypt facilities may offset export limits from tariffs [4] 6. Capital Expenditure - 70-80% of capital expenditure is allocated to E-fabric this year - Guidance for 2026E is expected in early October [4] 7. Valuation and Target Price - Target price set at Rmb15/share, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 19x on 2025E net income, indicating a recovery year following 2024's inflection point [7] 8. Risks - Major downside risks include weaker-than-expected demand for glass fiber products, rising energy costs, and greater-than-expected capacity additions - Upside risks include better-than-expected demand and supply-side discipline that could protect margins [8] 9. Financial Metrics - Current share price: Rmb14.840 - Target price: Rmb15.000 - Expected share price return: 1.1% - Expected dividend yield: 1.6% - Expected total return: 2.7% - Market capitalization: Rmb59,407 million (approximately US$8,321 million) [5] Additional Insights - The management's focus on maintaining a disciplined pricing strategy and selective market exits indicates a strategic approach to enhance profitability in a competitive landscape - The emphasis on overseas expansion and new product development aligns with global demand trends, particularly in renewable energy sectors This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding China Jushi's performance and strategic outlook in the glass fiber and E-fabric industry.