Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the AI supply chain and its implications for the semiconductor industry [2][3] - The focus is on the Chinese internet companies and their advancements in AI applications [5] Key Points and Arguments - AI Model Development: The trend shows that large models are becoming smaller, which is essential for AI development. The performance of new models from Chinese companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu is competitive with foreign products [2][5] - MediaTek's Performance: The demand for DPC (Data Processing Center) equipment is high, supporting basic computing power. MediaTek's earnings report is being closely monitored due to government demand [2][3] - Intel's New Product: Intel's new product has advantages due to its low dependency on cooling systems, leading to a recommendation for Lattice Semiconductor [2][3] - Market Sentiment: The panic in the market has subsided, and there is optimism among Production Service Providers (PSPs) regarding large-scale investments [2][3] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC): TSMC and its surrounding companies are seen as good buying opportunities in the Greater China region [2][3] - Chip Transition: The GP300 chip is expected to replace the GB chip as the mainstream option in the second half of the year, with TSMC already starting the tape-out process [2][3] - Tariff Implications: Potential tariffs could lead to a lose-lose situation for TSMC's clients and the U.S. economy [2][4] Additional Insights - AI Application Layers: Chinese internet companies' AI applications are categorized into three layers: internal optimization, C-end user applications, and B-end enterprise applications. The internal optimization is currently the most visible and quickest return on investment [5] - Performance Outlook for Amotong: The overall performance outlook for Amotong is positive, particularly for the a6s segment, although some impacts from voice and e-commerce investments are difficult to assess [6] - Macroeconomic Stability: Tariffs and chip export restrictions are causing macroeconomic instability, but they are not expected to significantly impact iPad performance this year [7] - Data Center Demand: The demand for inference is leading, requiring high bandwidth and typically deployed in urban areas, while training can be done in remote areas due to its high energy consumption [8][9] - Tencent's Stock Performance: Tencent's stock has underperformed compared to the Hang Seng Tech Index and Alibaba due to investor preference for AI concept stocks. However, Tencent's overall game revenue showed a year-on-year growth of nearly 10% during the Spring Festival [10]
大摩内部会:从DeepSeek看AI供应链新浪潮