新乳业20250213

Summary of the Conference Call for New Dairy Industry Company Overview - The conference call pertains to New Dairy Industry, focusing on its performance and strategies in the dairy sector, particularly in the context of the 2025 market outlook. Key Points and Arguments Market Demand and Strategy - In 2025, the dairy market is expected to face demand pressures, but certain channels, especially in rural areas, are showing relative activity. The management team has been actively monitoring market conditions during the Spring Festival [3][5] - The five-year strategy remains unchanged, with 2025 being a critical year aimed at maintaining growth while improving net profit margins and optimizing financial performance. The focus will continue to be on low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, with flexibility to adjust product strategies based on market changes [3][5] Revenue Growth Drivers - Low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt are the main revenue growth drivers, with high single-digit growth in the first three quarters of 2024, and close to triple-digit growth in Q3. However, ambient products have seen a decline, yet the overall main business remains positively growing [3][6] - Revenue from the brands "Huirun" and "Chuxin" is approximately 300 to 400 million, with both brands achieving double-digit growth in the first three quarters of 2024 [3][9][10] Raw Milk Price Outlook - The company anticipates stable raw milk prices in 2025, supported by a balanced supply-demand situation. The company has a self-sourced milk ratio of about 30%, which helps mitigate price fluctuations [3][7][8] Brand Investment and Product Strategy - Brand investments are expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, with both the amount and rate of expenses likely to rise to enhance future revenue and core competitiveness [3][12] - The strategy for ambient products focuses on developing unique offerings rather than merely following market trends, with expectations for improvement in the western regions in 2025 [3][13][14] High-End Product Performance - High-end products, particularly from the "Weipin" brand, are performing strongly, with ongoing brand investments to enhance market presence. The company aims for double-digit growth in its highest-end categories [3][18][24] Financial Performance and Future Projections - The company aims for positive growth in 2025, particularly in net profit, despite the overall dairy industry facing challenges in 2024. The goal is to exceed industry average performance if the market becomes more active [3][22][23] - The gross margin has improved by over two percentage points year-on-year, with structural improvements contributing significantly. This trend is expected to continue into 2025 [3][25] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the low-end market is intensifying, but low-temperature products are performing better than ambient products [3][26] Expansion Plans - The "24-hour" high-end product series accounts for about one-third of total revenue and has maintained double-digit growth. The company plans gradual expansion into other regions, focusing on supply chain management and consumer communication [3][27] Additional Important Insights - The company has a cautious approach to its growth targets for 2025, considering the potential impact of inflation and market conditions on its performance [3][22][24] - The company has recently conducted a mid-term dividend for 2024, aiming to enhance investor returns while ensuring sustainable development without significantly increasing the dividend ratio [3][20]