Summary of J.P. Morgan's Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker (February 13, 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil industry, specifically oil demand and inventory trends. Key Points 1. Global Oil Demand Growth - Global oil demand has increased to 103.4 million barrels per day (mbd), reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.4 mbd. However, this figure is 500 thousand barrels per day (kbd) below monthly projections [4][4][4]. 2. Heating Fuel Demand - Colder weather in the U.S. is expected to increase heating fuel use, with February projected to average 824 heating degree days (HDD), exceeding the 10-year average of 778 HDD. This could further narrow the gap between actual and projected demand [4][4][4]. 3. Gas-to-Oil Switching in Europe - Rising natural gas prices in Europe may lead to a shift from gas to oil, potentially increasing European oil demand by 100-150 kbd. However, current pricing makes this switch unlikely, as high and low sulfur fuel oils are priced 22-30% higher than gas [4][4][4]. 4. Impact of Sanctions on Oil Stocks - Following new sanctions imposed by President Biden, global oil stocks have diverged from projections. Notably, there has been a significant drop in global commercial crude oil stocks as China and India halt acceptance of sanctioned tankers [4][4][4]. 5. OECD Oil Stocks - Contrary to global trends, visible OECD commercial oil stocks recorded a net build of 4 million barrels in the first week of February, driven by increases in both crude and oil product stocks [4][4][4]. 6. Regional Oil Consumption Statistics - Recent statistics show varied oil consumption across regions, with India reporting a year-over-year increase of 170 kbd in January, while Japan reported a decrease of 243 kbd in December [4][4][4]. 7. Future Projections - The report indicates that the gap between actual and projected oil demand is expected to narrow as demand for mobility and heating fuels picks up, particularly in the U.S. and Europe [4][4][4]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the logistical challenges that may hinder a significant switch from gas to oil in Europe despite the potential demand increase. - The classification of idle sanctioned vessels as floating storage is a developing situation that could impact future inventory reporting [4][4][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from J.P. Morgan's Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the global oil market.
Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker_ Global oil demand expands 1.4 mbd YoY through February 11; global oil inventory reporting withheld until data realigns. Fri Feb 14 2025