GLP1 tracker_ Zepbound price-drop announced, uptick with LillyDirect visibility, not yet seeing more starter doses on sema

Summary of Eli Lilly & Co Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) - Industry: US Biopharmaceuticals - Rating: Outperform - Price Target: $1,100.00 USD by February 25, 2025 - **Current Price**:$881.40 USD - Market Cap: $835.717 billion USD - **Dividend Yield**: 0.7$349 and $499 per month, respectively, reflecting decreases of 12.5$499 for the first fill and refills within 45 days [8][3] Market Dynamics - The FDA's resolution of the semaglutide shortage is expected to boost demand for Eli Lilly's products, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound [2] - The prohibition of compounding semaglutide is anticipated to be a significant catalyst for Eli Lilly's market share growth [2] Growth Metrics - LillyDirect prescriptions are now included in IQVIA data, leading to a notable increase in weekly script numbers [2][9] - Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide products (Mounjaro and Zepbound) are adding approximately 1.3 million scripts every four weeks, outpacing Novo Nordisk's offerings [15] Market Share Insights - Eli Lilly holds a 53.7% market share in the GLP-1 category when including Trulicity, with Tirzepatide products capturing 48.8% of the market share in the latest week [16] - Mounjaro and Zepbound are showing accelerating growth in lower doses, indicating a strong uptake among new patients [15] Financial Projections - Adjusted EPS is projected to grow from $6.32 in FY23 to$22.77 in FY25, with a significant drop in adjusted P/E from 139.5x to 38.7x over the same period [7][31] - The stock is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15 percentage points [10] Additional Important Information - The report includes a detailed analysis of weekly TRx (total prescriptions) and NRx (new prescriptions) data for GLP-1 products, highlighting Eli Lilly's competitive position against Novo Nordisk [15][19] - Risks include potential pressures on the obesity total addressable market (TAM), manufacturing expansion challenges, and high-risk M&A activities [36][37] Conclusion Eli Lilly & Co is positioned for significant growth in the biopharmaceutical sector, particularly in the GLP-1 market, driven by strategic pricing, regulatory developments, and strong prescription growth metrics. The company's proactive approach to market access and pricing strategies is expected to enhance its competitive edge and financial performance in the coming years.