Frontline(FRO) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, Frontline reported a profit of $66.7 million or$0.30 per share, with an adjusted profit of $45.1 million or$0.20 per share, a decrease of about $30 million compared to the previous quarter primarily due to a decline in TCE earnings [11][12] - The company achieved TCE earnings of$35,900 per day for its VLCC fleet, $33,400 per day for Suezmax, and$26,100 per day for LR2/Aframax in Q4 2024 [2][8] - Strong liquidity was reported at $693 million in cash and cash equivalents, including undrawn credit facilities and marketable securities [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, 80$43,700 per day, 77% of Suezmax days at $35,400 per day, and 64$29,700 per day [3][8] - The average cash cost breakeven rates for 2025 are estimated at approximately $29,200 per day for VLCCs,$24,000 for Suezmax, and $22,200 for LR2 tankers, with a fleet average of about$26,200 per day [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global oil consumption averaged 103.4 million barrels per day in Q4 2024, up 1 million barrels per day year-on-year, expected to reach 104.5 million barrels by year-end [18] - Global oil exports were down 700,000 barrels per day in Q4 2024, contributing to disappointing rates [19] - The average fleet size for tankers is currently 13.7 years, the highest since 2001, with 46% of vessels over 15 years old [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a focus on compliant tankers amidst geopolitical uncertainties and sanctions enforcement [7][17] - Frontline is cautious about newbuilding commitments, preferring to wait for clearer market signals before making significant investments [90][92] - The company emphasizes the importance of adapting trading patterns based on market conditions, preferring short-distance trades in a struggling market [102] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the tanker market remains well-functioning despite geopolitical noise, with a belief in stable oil supply and demand [54][118] - The company anticipates that demand for compliant tonnage will grow, particularly as key Asian importers seek alternative supplies [55] - The management expressed concerns about the aging fleet and the potential for increased demand for compliant vessels if sanctions on Iranian oil are lifted [112] Other Important Information - The company has no newbuilding commitments and no significant debt maturities until 2028, allowing for a stable financial position [13] - The operational expenses for Q4 2024 were reported at $7,600 per day for VLCCs and$9,100 for Suezmax, with a fleet average OpEx of 7,400 excluding drydock [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on geopolitical events and their impact on chartering - Management noted a significant change in chartering behavior following sanctions, with a spike in Aframax rates for compliant vessels [60] Question: Clarification on drydocks and administrative expenses - Management confirmed only three drydocks for 2025 and provided insights on normalized administrative expenses expected to be around 9 to $10 million per quarter [67][70] Question: Differences in earnings between Frontline and Euronav vessels - The spread was attributed to strategic trading decisions, with Frontline focusing on eco scrubber-fitted vessels for long voyages [82] Question: Capital deployment strategies amid aging fleet and slow newbuild deliveries - Management expressed a cautious approach to capital deployment, preferring to wait for market clarity before committing to new builds [90][92] Question: Strategy for forward booking in a volatile environment - Management emphasized the importance of keeping vessels in the spot market and adjusting trading patterns based on market conditions [102]