Tesla(US:TSLA)2025-03-10 03:11Summary of Tesla Inc. Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - Company: Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) - Industry: Autos & Shared Mobility - Market Capitalization: $986.653 billion [3] Key Points and Arguments 1. Auto Industry Dynamics - Rivian was the only auto company presenting at a major tech conference, highlighting a lack of representation from traditional auto manufacturers despite rapid advancements in autonomy and AI-enabled robotics [5][5] - An expected inflection in electric vehicle (EV) penetration is anticipated to be driven by AI technology rather than incentives or climate goals [5] 2. Interest in Private Companies - There is a growing interest among clients in privately held companies within the embodied/physical AI sector, surpassing interest in publicly traded auto companies [5] - Increased requests for corporate access and report readership are noted for private companies compared to public ones [5] 3. Humanoid Robotics - Investor interest in humanoid robotics has surged year-over-year, expanding from tech-oriented investors to include industrial and automotive investors [5] - A visit to a humanoid manufacturer revealed a company expecting to produce thousands of robots by year-end, indicating significant market potential [5] 4. Data Acquisition for AI Models - The importance of acquiring large-scale video data for training AI models was emphasized, with a statement that such data represents a "gold mine" for various applications including autonomous vehicles and drones [5] - Companies are expected to introduce 'probes' to collect high-definition physical data, which is crucial for developing advanced AI systems [5] Financial Metrics and Projections - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: $430.00 - Current Price (as of March 5, 2025): $279.10 - 52-Week Price Range: $138.80 - $488.54 [3] Valuation Breakdown - Core Tesla Auto business valued at $86/share based on projected sales of 5.2 million units by 2030 - Network Services valued at $172/share with a 65% attach rate at $200 ARPU by 2040 - Tesla Mobility valued at $90/share based on DCF with ~7.5 million cars at ~$1.46/mile by 2040 - Energy segment valued at $65/share and third-party supplier role at $17/share [9] Risks Identified - Risks to upside include service revenue disclosures, increased Full Self-Driving (FSD) attach rates, and successful new model introductions (e.g., Cybertruck, multivan, Semi) [12] - Risks to downside include competition from legacy OEMs and execution risks related to factory ramp-ups [12] Additional Insights - The conference highlighted a shift in investor focus towards innovative technologies and private companies, indicating a potential transformation in the investment landscape within the automotive sector [5]