印度_新加坡营销之旅记录 -应对关税不确定性

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Indian Economic and Market Outlook - Company: Goldman Sachs India Core Insights 1. Tariff Uncertainty: Concerns were raised regarding potential US reciprocal tariff policies affecting India, particularly in goods trade. However, it is believed that services trade will remain unaffected [4] 2. Domestic Growth: Investors perceive that the decline in domestic growth has stabilized, with GDP growth likely bottoming out in Q3 CY24. There is cautious optimism regarding a gentle recovery supported by recent monetary policy easing and tax relief measures [5] 3. Fiscal Policy: The Indian government is committed to fiscal consolidation, targeting a fiscal deficit of 4.4% of GDP in FY26. There is a shift in focus towards consumption growth rather than investment, with concerns about the execution capacity of state-level capex projects [6] 4. Inflation Outlook: The inflation outlook is considered benign, with Brent crude oil prices decreasing from $82/bbl to approximately $70/bbl. Weather shocks pose a risk to agricultural supply and rural growth recovery [7] 5. Market Sentiment: Equity investors expect a gradual turnaround in earnings growth, leading to a range-bound equity market. Large-cap valuations have moderated, but there is a risk of further corrections in mid and small-cap stocks [8] Additional Important Points 1. Monetary Policy: Fixed-income investors anticipate a deep monetary policy easing cycle due to the prolonged growth slowdown. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting [10] 2. Foreign Exchange: The depreciation pressure on the Indian Rupee (INR) against the US Dollar is believed to have stabilized, primarily due to recent FII equity outflows of approximately $15 billion [11] 3. Investor Sentiment: There is a mixed sentiment among investors regarding the overall economic outlook, with some expressing concerns about the transmission of monetary policy if liquidity remains uncertain [10][11]