Global_ GS Economic Indicators Update_ Positive Growth News in the Euro Area, Negative in the US

Summary of Goldman Sachs Economic Indicators Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on global economic indicators, particularly highlighting the divergence in growth news between the Euro Area and the US as of March 2025 [1][6][8]. Key Points Economic Growth Divergence - Positive growth indicators are noted in the Euro Area, while negative trends are observed in the US [1][6]. - The GS MAP Surprise Index shows a significant difference in economic performance between the US and Euro Area, with the Euro Area showing more favorable surprises [3][4]. GDP Forecast Changes - The GDP forecast for 2025 has been adjusted, showing higher growth expectations for Germany but lower for the US and Brazil [8][9]. - Specific changes in GDP forecasts include: - Turkey: +1.3 percentage points since 60 days ago [9]. - Turkey: +1.2 percentage points since a week ago [9]. Current Activity Indicator (CAI) - The Global CAI for February is reported at +2.3%, with the US at +1.4% and the Euro Area at +0.4% [11][52]. - Emerging markets show stronger performance, with Brazil at +4.6% and India at +7.3% [11][52]. Financial Conditions Index (FCI) - The Global FCI has eased primarily due to short rates, indicating a more favorable financial environment [8][24]. - The Euro Area FCI shows a tightening trend, while the US FCI reflects a more stable condition [30][34]. Wage and Price Inflation - Wage trackers indicate varying inflation measures across different regions, with the US showing a composition-adjusted wage tracker [20][68]. - Inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted, with notable changes in core inflation expectations for Argentina and Russia [92][94]. Employment Trends - The jobs-workers gap has been analyzed, showing significant changes since December 2019 across various countries, including the US, UK, and Canada [23][75]. - The report highlights the importance of labor market dynamics in shaping economic recovery [73]. Fiscal Policy Impacts - The effect of fiscal policy on real GDP growth is projected, with varying impacts across the US, Euro Area, and China [81][82]. - Russia is noted for a positive fiscal impulse of +2.8 percentage points [81]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators as they can significantly influence investment decisions [5]. - The methodology behind the GS MAP Surprise Index and other proprietary indicators is briefly discussed, highlighting the rigorous standards applied in their development [4][108]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Goldman Sachs Economic Indicators Update, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and its implications for investment strategies.