Tesla Inc_ Reduce Ests as Consumer Reaction Toward Brand Intensifies; Now See 2nd Year of Lower Deliveries in ’25 and 3rd Year of Lower EPS, Undermining Growth Narrative & Premium Valuation. Wed Mar 12 2025

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 12 March 2025 (1-212) 622-6581 ryan.j.brinkman@jpmorgan.com Rajat Gupta After a slow start to the year and in consideration of the growing reactions toward the brand, which could worsen the trend, we now expect Tesla 1Q25 deliveries of just ~355K, which is -8% y/y from 387K in 1Q24 and -28% q/q from 495K in 4Q24, while also down substantially from our prior estimate of 444K and -15% below Bloomberg consensus for 418K. On account of the material 1Q deliveries sho ...