Summary of J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil industry, specifically oil demand and inventory trends as of March 12, 2025 Key Points Oil Demand Trends - Global oil demand has increased by 1.7 million barrels per day (mbd) as of March 11, 2025, amid economic concerns among American consumers [2] - Current global oil demand averages 102.2 mbd, which is 1.7 mbd higher year-over-year, exceeding projections by 60 thousand barrels per day (kbd) [5] - The U.S. is experiencing robust demand, with warmer weather forecasts expected to improve gasoline and jet fuel demand [5] - However, there are signs of economic uncertainty affecting consumer behavior, as major brands like Walmart and Amazon have reported softer demand [5] Inventory and Stock Changes - OECD total liquids stocks have drawn down by 1.1 mbd, with a net decline of 8 million barrels in visible OECD commercial oil stocks during the first week of March [3] - Crude oil stocks saw a build of 2 million barrels, while product stocks experienced a draw of 10 million barrels [3] Regional Insights - U.S. passenger volumes for March have decreased by 5% year-over-year, indicating a potential decline in travel demand [5] - In Asia, Chinese flights have returned to 104% of their 2019 levels post-New Year holidays, while flights in Asia excluding China have dipped below 100% for the first time in three months [5] - Europe is experiencing its highest flight activity since the pandemic, with volumes only 2.5% above 2019 levels [5] Economic Outlook - The likelihood of a recession in the U.S. has increased to 40%, which could lead to a contraction in oil demand by 700 kbd during recessionary periods [5] - Global oil consumption could decline by up to 1.3 mbd if a recession occurs [5] Regional Oil Consumption Statistics - India reported a year-over-year decline of 96 kbd in February, while France saw an increase of 48 kbd [20] - Thailand and Taiwan also reported changes in oil consumption, with Thailand showing a year-over-year increase of 26 kbd in January [20] Price Projections - The near-term price band for oil is projected to be between 80 per barrel, absent any policy shifts [5] Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring consumer sentiment and economic indicators as they directly impact oil demand and pricing [5] - The data on regional oil consumption provides a nuanced view of how different economies are responding to current market conditions [20] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research call, focusing on oil demand, inventory changes, regional consumption statistics, and economic outlook.
Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker_ Global oil demand rises by 1.7 mbd through March 11 amid growing economic concerns among American consumers. Wed Mar 12 2025