HUTCHMED-和黄医药_2024 年因运营成本削减业绩超预期；2025 年展望依然疲软

Summary of HUTCHMED (China) Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - Company: HUTCHMED (China) Ltd - Industry: China Healthcare - Ticker: 0013.HK - Market Cap: US $2,735 million - **Price Target**: HK$ 28.00, representing a 17% upside from the current price of HK $23.90 as of March 19, 2025 [5][5][5] Key Financial Highlights - **2024 Total Revenue**: US$ 630 million, which missed expectations, primarily due to legacy business and other ventures [2][2] - Oncology Revenue: US $363 million, in line with consensus [2][2] - **Profitability**: Reported a profit of US$ 43 million, significantly better than the consensus expectation of a US $20 million loss, attributed to reduced operating expenses (opex) of US$ 325 million compared to the consensus estimate of US $380 million [2][2] - **2025 Revenue Guidance**: Projected oncology revenue of US$ 350-450 million, below consensus of US $481 million, indicating potential downward revisions [3][3] Growth Outlook - **2025 Growth Expectations**: The mid-point of the 2025 guidance suggests a growth rate of approximately 12-17% in marketed product sales, excluding milestone and R&D services [3][3] - **Drivers of Growth**: Anticipated growth is expected to come from domestic label expansions for fruqintinib and savolitinib, as well as launches in the EU and Japan for FRUZAQLA [3][3] Market Sentiment and Future Events - **Market Sentiment**: Current sentiment may improve with the upcoming 2025 European Lung Cancer Congress, where detailed data from the global Phase II SAVANNAH study will be presented [8][8] - **Investor Outlook**: Investors may become more constructive following the approval of SYK inhibitors or clearer regulatory pathways for savolitinib [8][8] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: A discounted cash flow (DCF) approach is used to derive the price target, incorporating an 11% WACC and a terminal growth rate of 2% [9][10] - **Risks to Upside**: Successful data readouts and market ramp-up for savolitinib, and FDA approval for fruqintinib in earlier lines of treatment could enhance commercial uptake [12][12] - **Risks to Downside**: Potential failure to generate positive data in ongoing studies or delays in regulatory approvals could negatively impact growth [12][12] Additional Insights - **Stock Rating**: Equal-weight, indicating that the stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the industry coverage universe [5][5] - **52-Week Price Range**: HK$ 35.90 - HK$19.80, indicating volatility in stock performance [5][5] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the financial performance, growth outlook, market sentiment, valuation methodology, and associated risks for HUTCHMED (China) Ltd.