Zijin Mining(SH:601899)2025-03-26 07:35Summary of Zijin Mining Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Zijin Mining (2899.HK) - Industry: Mining, specifically focusing on gold and copper production Key Financial Highlights - 2024 Net Profit: Rmb32.1 billion, up 52% YoY, aligning with previous profit alerts [1] - Recurring Net Income: Rmb31.7 billion, up 47% YoY [1] - 4Q24 Implied Bottom Line: Rmb7.7 billion, up 55% YoY, down 17% QoQ [1] - Dividends: Proposed total dividend of Rmb0.38 per share for 2024, up from Rmb0.25 in 2023, with a payout ratio of 32% [1] Production and Cost Metrics Gold Production - 2024 Mined Gold Production: 72.9 tons, up 8% YoY [2] - Unit Cost: Rmb231 per gram, up 3% YoY [2] - Gold Price: Rmb521 per gram, up 28% YoY [2] - Gross Profit Margin: 56%, up 10.6 percentage points YoY [2] Copper Production - 2024 Mined Copper Production: 1,068 kilotons, up 6% YoY [3] - Unit Cost: Rmb22,928 per ton, down 1% YoY [3] - Copper Price: Rmb58,438 per ton, up 14% YoY [3] - Gross Profit Margin: 61%, up 6.3 percentage points YoY [3] Financial Projections - Target Price: Raised to HK$24.4 per share from HK$21.9 [1] - Expected Total Return: 43.6% [4] - Market Capitalization: HK$459.26 billion (US$59.08 billion) [4] Future Guidance - 2025 Production Guidance: Copper at 1.15 million tons, gold at 85 tons, and 40 kilotons of other metals, representing increases of 8% and 17% YoY for copper and gold respectively [8] Cash Flow and Gearing - Net Gearing: 67%, down from 70% in 3Q24 and 90% in YE2023 [7] - Operating Cash Flow (OCF): Rmb48.9 billion, up 33% YoY [7] - Free Cash Flow (FCF): Positive at Rmb8.7 billion, compared to -Rmb3.5 billion in 2023 [7] Risks and Considerations - Downside Risks: Include lower-than-expected gold and copper prices, capex overruns, cost inflation, and lower production output [25] Conclusion - Investment Recommendation: Maintain Buy rating based on strong performance in gold and copper production, positive cash flow, and favorable market conditions for metals [1][9]