中信证券 可控核聚变观点更新

Summary of the Conference Call on Controlled Nuclear Fusion Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the controlled nuclear fusion industry, highlighting its current trends and future prospects [2][4][5]. Key Trends and Developments - Policy Support: Significant backing from government policies, with many state-owned nuclear enterprises forming joint ventures to invest in controlled nuclear fusion [2][5]. - Increased Investment: Investment in the sector for 2025 has noticeably increased compared to 2024, indicating growing confidence and commitment [2][4]. - Project Implementation: Several projects, including those in Hefei and Sichuan, have commenced, with expectations for more projects to follow [2][4]. - Public Awareness: Controlled nuclear fusion is gradually entering public awareness and is on the path to commercialization, although some short-term investments may be overvalued [2][4]. Core Insights - U.S.-China Competition: The U.S. aims to achieve ignition by 2027 and grid connection by 2028, pressuring China to increase its investments in fusion technology [2][5]. - Key Projects: - Hefei Best Project: Led by China National Nuclear Corporation, targeting completion by 2027 [6]. - Nanchang Hybrid Pile Project: Utilizing deuterium-tritium fusion and fission pile technology for stable power generation [6][7]. - High-Temperature Superconducting Magnet Equipment: A significant focus area, with Lianchuang Optoelectronics holding the largest market share [6]. Technical Insights - Hybrid Pile Technology: This technology combines fusion and fission reactions, reducing the requirements for laser power and purity analysis, making it a more viable transitional solution [7]. - Cost Structure in ITER: In the ITER project, hybrid pile costs account for approximately 40% of the total reactor costs, making it the largest component [8]. - Core Components: - DE&T filters account for about 10% of the value, with companies like Guoguang and Yongding previously supplying these components [9]. - Pressure vessels in vacuum chambers account for about 8% of the value, produced by companies like Hezhu Intelligent and Hailu Heavy Industry [9]. Company Roles and Market Dynamics - Lianchuang Optoelectronics: Holds a significant portion of orders for the Starfire Project due to its equity structure and is expected to lead future large-scale project tenders [10]. - Other Key Players: - Guoguang Electric and Chengdu Pioneer Intelligent are involved in hybrid pile projects. - Yongding and Jinda are core suppliers, with Jinda holding an 18% stake in Shanghai Superconductor [11]. - Nuclear Calculation Intelligence: Expected to secure approximately 1 billion RMB in orders for advanced reactor core manufacturing [12]. Upcoming Events and Monitoring - A supplier conference is scheduled for April, which may announce new orders or information [13]. - Attention will be on the progress of U.S. fusion projects, the listing process of Shanghai Superconductor, and tenders for large engineering projects like Dyson and Starfire [13]. Conclusion - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is poised for significant growth, driven by government support, increased investment, and technological advancements. Key projects and companies are well-positioned to capitalize on this emerging market, with ongoing developments warranting close monitoring.