Summary of Miniso Group Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Miniso Group - Industry: Retail, Specialty - Founded: 2013 - Stock Exchange Listings: New York and Hong Kong - Store Count: 3,926 stores in China and 2,487 stores overseas as of 2023, plus 148 TopToy stores [doc id='10'][doc id='10']. Key Points from the Conference Call 1. 2024 Guidance and Performance - The management indicated that the miss in 2024 guidance was attributed to reduced tax credits and underperformance in domestic Q4 sales [doc id='2']. - Domestic same-store sales growth (SSSG) showed sequential improvement in Q1 2025 compared to Q3 and Q4 2024, although it remained negative year-over-year [doc id='2'][doc id='3']. 2. Growth Projections for 2025 - Management reiterated guidance for double-digit growth, with domestic and overseas business expected to grow 40-45% year-over-year in 2025 [doc id='2']. - The TOP TOY brand is projected to maintain a growth rate of 50% year-over-year, contributing to overall group growth acceleration [doc id='2']. 3. Domestic Market Insights - Management targets high single-digit to low teens growth for domestic revenue in Q1 2025 [doc id='3']. - Franchisee profitability remains healthy, with over 85% earning more than RMB 100,000 annually [doc id='3']. - No net openings are planned in Q1 2025, but 200-300 new stores are expected to open throughout the year [doc id='3']. 4. Online Sales and Product Mix - Online sales are anticipated to be a key growth driver, with improvements in product mix expected to enhance performance [doc id='3']. 5. Overseas Market Performance - Sales per store in overseas markets are benchmarked against a domestic store with annual sales of RMB 3-4 million, with varying performance across regions [doc id='4']. - The operating profit margin (OPM) of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) stores is expected to improve in 2025, despite a slight decline in 2024 due to new store ramp-up [doc id='4']. 6. Valuation and Price Target - The price target is set at HK18.75, with a market cap of US$5.92 billion [doc id='5']. 7. Earnings Forecast - Expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 9.80, with projections of RMB 11.42 and RMB 12.93 for 2026 and 2027, respectively [doc id='6']. 8. Risks and Challenges - Key risks include economic slowdown in China, increased competition from internet firms, regulatory scrutiny, and potential litigation related to intellectual property [doc id='11'][doc id='12']. 9. Market Return Expectations - Forecast stock return is estimated at 41.7%, with a market return assumption of 11.1% [doc id='9']. Conclusion Miniso Group is positioned for growth in 2025, with a focus on expanding both domestic and overseas markets. The management's positive outlook, combined with strategic initiatives in online sales and product offerings, supports the investment thesis despite existing risks in the retail landscape.
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