毛戈平_初步分析_2024 年下半年因护肤品线上销售疲软未达预期；中性评级

Summary of Mao Geping Cosmetics Co. (1318.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - Company: Mao Geping Cosmetics Co. (1318.HK) - Industry: Cosmetics Key Financial Results - 2H24 Sales: RMB 1,913.2 million, up 28.6% YoY, but 8% below Goldman Sachs estimates (GSe) and 7% below Wind consensus [1][5] - 2H24 Net Profit: RMB 388.5 million, up 24.1% YoY, 6% below GSe and Wind consensus [1][3] - 2024 Full Year Revenue: RMB 3,885 million, up 34.6% YoY, 4% below both GSe and consensus [1][3] - 2024 Full Year Net Profit: RMB 880.6 million, up 33.0% YoY, 3% below GSe and consensus [1][3] - Adjusted Net Income: RMB 411 million for 2H24, up 31% YoY, 8% below GSe [1][3] Sales Performance by Category - Color Cosmetics: Grew by 41% YoY in 2H24 to RMB 1,219 million, representing 64% of sales mix, 2% above GSe [8] - Skincare: Increased by 10% YoY in 2H24 to RMB 614 million, 24% lower than GSe, representing 32% of sales mix [8] - Makeup Artistry Training: Grew by 24% YoY in 2H24 to RMB 80 million, 5% lower than GSe [8] Sales Performance by Channel - Offline Sales: Increased by 21% YoY in 2H24 to RMB 982 million, representing 51% of sales mix, 3% lower than GSe [9] - Online Sales: Grew by 40% YoY in 2H24 to RMB 851 million, representing 44% of sales mix, 14% lower than GSe [11] Margin Analysis - Gross Margin: Contracted by 1.3 percentage points YoY to 83.8%, largely in line with GSe [12] - Operating Margin: Increased by 0.5 percentage points YoY to 26.3%, above GSe of 25.8% [13] - Net Margin: Contracted by 0.7 percentage points YoY to 20.3%, above GSe of 19.9% [14] Dividend Information - Dividend Payout: Declared a final dividend of RMB 0.72 per share, with a total payout ratio of 154%, significantly above GSe of 124% [15] Future Outlook and Strategic Focus - 2025 Revenue/NI Outlook: Discussion expected to focus on key drivers and strategies to balance color makeup and skincare [2] - 1Q25 Performance: Anticipated updates on offline and online sales performance, including Women's Day recap [2] - Branding/Product/Channel Strategies: Emphasis on skincare category and online channel expansion [2] Risks and Considerations - Key Risks: Include the pace of beauty consumption penetration in China, online penetration rates, and new product development in skincare [18][19] Valuation and Price Target - Price Target: HK$ 75, based on a 25x 2026E PE, with a downside of 34.2% from the current price of HK$ 113.90 [20][17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings call, highlighting the financial performance, sales breakdown, margin analysis, future outlook, and associated risks for Mao Geping Cosmetics Co.