毛戈平 20250523 公司整体利润率良好，不排除未来有额外盈利机会。2025 年 6 月和 12 月分别有 7.5%和 35%的股份解禁，港股情绪较好，可能带来退出或新 入场机会，公司或采取措施稳定股价。 预计公司在 2025 年的归母净利润将达到 12 亿元，线下增速 22%，线 上增速达 51%，线上直销占到 14.3 亿元，经销约 3.5 亿人民币，线下 经销商销售额仅 8,700 万元。 当前市场对毛戈平公司的关注点是什么？ 市场目前主要关注两个方向：一是护肤品的占比及其未来发展的确定性；二是 当前的经营节奏。从护肤品情况来看，2024 年下半年增速环比走弱，仅有十 来个点，相较于以往二三十个点甚至更高的增长有所下降。这被认为是商品策 略和经营节奏的调整结果。在线上推广方面，公司仍然以抖音为主，通过自有 直播间和达人视频号共同带货推动销量。在大单品集中效应明显的情况下，如 防晒霜、鱼子精华系列等优质产品在线下表现良好，但在线上的曝光率不高。 然而，这些产品在实际销售中已经取得了显著成绩。 毛戈平公司如何看待护肤品未来的发展？ 公司对护肤品未来的发展持乐观态度。尽管 2024 年下半年护肤品占比较少 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has a long history and strong brand heritage, founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping in 2000, establishing significant brand influence in the Chinese beauty industry [6][10] - The brand is experiencing accelerated growth and has substantial room for expansion, with a diverse range of high-repurchase products in the makeup category [6] - The company is driven by both product and channel strategies, continuously innovating in product offerings and maintaining a dual-channel approach for sales [6] - The brand has strong resource barriers, including a well-known professional makeup artist IP and unique high-end department store resources, which enhance consumer relationships and brand value [6] - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate significant growth, with expected revenues of 5.368 billion, 6.976 billion, and 8.785 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, and net profits of 1.2 billion, 1.58 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB respectively [6] Company Overview - Mao Geping Cosmetics Co., Ltd. has established itself as a leader in the high-end beauty market in China, with a focus on makeup, skincare, and makeup training [10][11] - The company has two main brands: MAOGEPING and Zhi Ai Zhong Sheng, with a product mix that includes makeup, skincare, and training services [10] Financial Performance - The company's revenue grew from 1.577 billion RMB in 2021 to 2.886 billion RMB in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 58% in 2023 [11] - The net profit increased from 331 million RMB in 2021 to 881 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33% [11] Market Analysis - The Chinese beauty market is projected to continue growing, with the skincare and makeup sectors expected to reach a market size of 876.3 billion RMB by 2028, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% [25] - High-end beauty brands are experiencing steeper growth curves compared to mass-market brands, with the high-end segment expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.9% from 2023 to 2028 [29][30] Product Strategy - The company is expanding its product lines in both makeup and skincare, with a focus on high-quality, high-priced products that reflect its premium positioning [63][81] - The makeup line includes a variety of products, with a strong emphasis on foundation and color cosmetics, while the skincare line is designed to enhance makeup application [64][69] Channel Strategy - The company employs a dual-channel strategy, leveraging both online and offline sales channels to maximize reach and consumer engagement [82] - The offline channel is expected to recover and grow, while online sales continue to dominate, reflecting changing consumer preferences [35][59]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The launch of the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series by the company is expected to create a new growth point through differentiation in the market [2][3] - The global fragrance market is projected to reach between $57 billion and $61 billion in 2024, with significant growth potential in the Chinese market, which currently accounts for only 6% of the global market [3] - The company has established a unique brand culture and competitive advantage in the high-end beauty market, positioning itself to capture more market share and achieve stable growth [5][7] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company officially launched the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series on May 8, with three main products priced at 680 RMB for 45ml and 200 RMB for 10ml, alongside a 2ml sample priced at 19.9 RMB [2] Market Analysis - The fragrance market shows strong resilience compared to the overall beauty market, with significant growth opportunities for domestic brands in China, as evidenced by nearly 100,000 new fragrance-related companies registered in 2023 [3][4] Product Differentiation - The company's perfume products emphasize emotional expression and cultural themes, differentiating them from foreign brands, and targeting the mid-to-high-end market segment with a pricing strategy that avoids direct competition with high-priced international brands [4][5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025 - 50.54 billion RMB, 2026 - 65.03 billion RMB, and 2027 - 82.58 billion RMB, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.6% for net profit from 2024 to 2027 [7][9] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.42 RMB, 3.07 RMB, and 3.91 RMB respectively, indicating strong growth potential [7][9] Competitive Positioning - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rising trend of domestic cultural products and consumer upgrades, maintaining a strong brand image and competitive pricing compared to Western brands [6][7]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached RMB 3,884.7 million, a 34.7% increase from RMB 2,886.0 million in 2023[8] - Gross profit for 2024 was RMB 3,277.5 million, representing a gross margin of 84.3% compared to 84.9% in 2023[8] - Net profit for the year was RMB 881.3 million, up 32.9% from RMB 663.5 million in 2023[8] - The company declared a dividend of RMB 1,000.0 million for 2024, significantly higher than RMB 250.0 million in 2023[8] - The total assets increased to RMB 4,473.5 million in 2024, up from RMB 2,094.6 million in 2023, marking a 113.5% growth[8] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2024 was 34.9%, down from 49.5% in 2023, indicating a shift in profitability metrics[8] - Total sales revenue for 2024 was RMB 3,732.9 million, up 34.2% from RMB 2,781.9 million in 2023[111] - Sales cost increased by 38.7% to RMB 607.2 million in 2024 from RMB 437.7 million in 2023, consistent with sales revenue growth[115] - Gross profit rose by 33.9% to RMB 3,277.5 million in 2024 from RMB 2,448.2 million in 2023, with a stable gross margin of 84.4%[119] - Other income increased to RMB 68.4 million in 2024 from RMB 46.6 million in 2023, primarily due to higher government subsidies[120] Market Expansion and Product Development - The company launched over 100 new products in 2024, expanding its product portfolio to over 400 items[10] - The company has established partnerships with high-end department stores, including Wuhan SKP and Chengdu SKP, enhancing its market presence[10] - The company plans to enhance product development and channel construction to strengthen brand recognition and global reputation[15] - The company aims to meet diverse consumer needs by offering a full range of foundation products, including primers, concealers, and setting powders[28] - The company has developed over 100 new SKUs for the MAOGEPING and Love Forever brands in the fiscal year 2024[62] - The company is focusing on core products, including best-selling skincare and makeup items, to maintain quality control and protect intellectual property[66] - The company plans to strategically expand into overseas markets through a dual-channel approach of department store counters and online stores, aiming to enhance brand exposure globally[99] Online Sales and Marketing Strategy - Online revenue increased from RMB 1,179.8 million in 2023 to RMB 1,784.3 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 51.2%[80] - The company has implemented a content-driven marketing strategy to enhance brand reputation, including collaborations with athletes and cultural events[82] - The online expansion strategy focuses on building its own official website and broadening coverage on third-party e-commerce platforms[93] Training and Education - The makeup training business generated revenue of RMB 151.7 million, a 45.8% increase year-on-year, exceeding pre-pandemic levels[11] - The training institutions have enrolled over 6,000 students in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.4% compared to 2023[52] - The company is committed to professional makeup training, providing comprehensive face-to-face courses across the country to enhance makeup artistry standards[189] Corporate Governance and Leadership - 顧先生於2024年4月1日被任命為獨立非執行董事，擁有豐富的財務管理經驗[158] - 顧先生曾擔任多家上市公司的財務總監，並在UTStarcom Holdings Corp.任職期間負責會計及財務事宜[159] - 黃輝先生於2024年4月1日被任命為獨立非執行董事，專長於公司法和金融法[162] - 李海龍先生於2022年5月13日被任命為獨立非執行董事，擁有廣泛的學術背景和法學經驗[163] - 高妍女士自2018年12月29日起擔任監事會主席，並於2012年加入本集團[167] - 毛戈平先生是本公司的創始人及董事長，擁有豐富的行業經驗[171] - 毛霓萍女士是執行董事及副董事長，並為毛戈平化妝品股份有限公司的聯合創始人[171] Financial Position and Cash Flow - Cash and cash equivalents rose to RMB 2,791.7 million by the end of 2024, up from RMB 1,137.9 million in 2023, reflecting a net increase of RMB 1,651.7 million[132] - The company's total liabilities to total assets ratio improved from 26.1% in 2023 to 21.7% in 2024, indicating a stronger financial position[131] - Operating cash flow increased from RMB 699.7 million in 2023 to RMB 968.6 million in 2024, driven by sales growth[132] Strategic Investments and Future Outlook - The company plans to explore strategic investments and acquisitions in beauty brands that align with its high-end market positioning and complement its product offerings[99] - The company aims to enhance the MAOGEPING brand's reputation and explore investment opportunities for potential acquisitions in the mid-to-high-end beauty market[97] - A new R&D center is being established in Hangzhou, expected to be operational by the end of 2026, to strengthen product design and development capabilities[103] Dividend Policy - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.72 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, totaling RMB 352.93 million[193] - The company will withhold a 10% corporate income tax for overseas non-resident enterprise shareholders on dividends distributed[194] - For overseas individual shareholders from countries with a tax agreement with China, a 10% personal income tax will be withheld on dividends[195]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call pertains to Guohai Securities and its analysis of the cosmetics industry, specifically focusing on a company involved in the makeup and skincare sectors. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Performance Alignment**: The company's performance is reported to be in line with market expectations, with a total profit of 881 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 34% [1] 2. **Revenue Growth**: The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.885 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 34.6%. The mid-year revenue growth is expected to be around 40.97% [2] 3. **Profit Margins**: The scale profit margin is maintained at 22.7%, while the gold bar profit margin is at 23.8%. A discrepancy of 40 million yuan is noted due to one-time listing expenses and pre-listing incentive costs [2] 4. **Seasonality in Sales**: The company’s sales are less seasonal compared to other cosmetics companies, attributed to a significant offline business presence, which is nearly half of total sales. Other companies tend to have a higher online sales ratio [2][3] 5. **Product Focus**: The company has a strong focus on color cosmetics, which account for 59.3% of sales. The increase in the PCT (Product Contribution to Total) for color cosmetics by 3.1% is noted [3] 6. **Online Strategy**: The company is in a phase of benefiting from online transformation, with expectations for high growth to continue into 2025. However, clearer guidance for 2025 is awaited [4] 7. **Market Sentiment**: The market sentiment is described as cautious, with trading volumes approaching 30% of the total tradable shares. The stock price experienced a decline of 9.6% during the trading day [5] 8. **Consumer Engagement**: Online and offline repurchase rates are increasing, with online repurchase rates up by 5.5 percentage points and offline by 2.1 percentage points. The total registered offline members reached 4.8 million, an increase of 1.2 million, while online members reached over 11 million, an increase of 400,000 [6] 9. **Future Expectations**: The company is expected to confirm growth guidance and product planning in an upcoming offline performance meeting on April 1 [5][7] Other Important Content - The call emphasized the importance of not recording or distributing the content, highlighting legal responsibilities associated with the information shared [1][8] - The conference was intended for clients who meet Guohai Securities' investor suitability management requirements, and the content does not constitute investment advice [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The report discusses the valuation and growth potential of the company, 毛戈平, in the context of international luxury beauty brands and domestic new consumption trends. It highlights the company's unique brand culture and competitive advantages in the high-end beauty market, suggesting that it is well-positioned to capture market share and achieve stable growth [1][8]. Summary by Sections International Beauty Giants - International beauty giants like L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Shiseido have maintained stable growth and valuation premiums due to their comprehensive brand matrices and global strategies. L'Oréal's average PE from 2015 to 2024 is 38 times, with a revenue and net profit CAGR of 6.5% and 7.7% respectively [2][3]. - Estée Lauder has focused on youthfulness and high-end branding, achieving an average PE of 80 times from 2020 to 2022, but faced significant volatility post-2021 due to market changes [2]. - Shiseido's strategy of focusing on mid-to-high-end products and global expansion has led to a peak PE exceeding 100 times, although it has faced challenges in revenue and profit stability in recent years [3]. Domestic New Consumption - The rise of domestic brands reflects increased cultural confidence and changing consumer demands. Brands like 毛戈平, 老铺黄金, and 泡泡玛特 have capitalized on cultural recognition and competitive scarcity, leading to significant stock performance [4]. - 毛戈平 is highlighted as a rare high-end domestic beauty brand with substantial growth potential, leveraging its founder's cultural IP and a professional product matrix to establish a strong market position [8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 50.54 billion, 65.03 billion, and 82.58 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 11.85 billion, 15.06 billion, and 19.18 billion yuan respectively. The compound annual growth rate for net profit from 2024 to 2027 is estimated at 29.6% [9]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.42, 3.07, and 3.91 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 41.53, 32.68, and 25.67 times [9]. Competitive Advantages - 毛戈平's unique brand culture and high-end product offerings create a competitive moat in the domestic beauty market. The company is expanding its product matrix and has begun exploring overseas markets, with initial revenues from international sales already noted [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.885 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 881 million, up 33%, while the adjusted net profit reached 924 million, growing by 39.2% [2][4]. - The growth was driven by the cosmetics segment, with revenue from color cosmetics and skincare reaching 2.3 billion and 1.43 billion respectively, marking increases of 42% and 23% [7]. - The company has seen a significant increase in membership and repurchase rates, with membership growing from 10.3 million to 15.1 million and online and offline repurchase rates reaching 27.5% and 34.9%, respectively [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 3.885 billion in 2024, a 34.6% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 881 million, reflecting a 33% growth, while the adjusted net profit was 924 million, up 39.2% [2][4]. - The revenue breakdown shows that color cosmetics generated 2.3 billion, growing by 42%, and skincare products brought in 1.43 billion, with a 23% increase [7]. Market Dynamics - The company experienced strong growth in both online and offline channels, with online revenue increasing by 51% to 1.78 billion and offline revenue growing by 22% to 1.95 billion [7]. - The second half of 2024 continued to show robust performance, with total revenue of 1.91 billion, a 29% year-on-year increase, and color cosmetics growing by 41% [7]. Brand Development - The company is expanding its brand presence with a focus on multiple product categories, including color cosmetics, skincare, and fragrances. The growth strategy is supported by a strong pipeline of quality mid-tier products and enhanced online marketing efforts [7]. - The brand's membership and repurchase rates indicate a healthy growth trajectory, with significant increases in both metrics, showcasing the brand's growing customer loyalty [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of over 30% in 2024, with total revenue reaching 3.885 billion yuan (up 34.6% year-on-year) and a net profit of 881 million yuan (up 33.0% year-on-year) [4][5] - The company is expected to continue its strong performance, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.179 billion, 1.536 billion, and 1.939 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 33.9% [4][7] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 84.4%, with a stable expense ratio across sales, management, and R&D [5][7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue and net profit projections for 2025 are 5.184 billion yuan and 1.179 billion yuan respectively, with an expected EPS of 2.41 yuan [7] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 41.9, 32.2, and 25.5 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7] - The company maintains a high return on equity (ROE) of 32.7% for 2025, reflecting strong profitability [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.885 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.6%, with a net profit of 881 million yuan, up 33% year-on-year. The gross margin stood at 84.4%, with a net margin of 22.69% [1][4]. - The color cosmetics segment showed significant growth, achieving revenue of 2.304 billion yuan, a 42.04% increase year-on-year, while the skincare segment generated 1.429 billion yuan, growing 23.21% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expanding its online channels rapidly, with online revenue reaching 1.784 billion yuan, a 51.23% increase year-on-year, while offline revenue was 1.949 billion yuan, up 21.64% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.885 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.6%. The net profit was 881 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 33% [6]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 1.158 billion yuan, 1.449 billion yuan, and 1.795 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 40, 32, and 26 [4][6].

Summary of Mao Geping Cosmetics Co. (1318.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Mao Geping Cosmetics Co. (1318.HK) - **Industry**: Cosmetics Key Financial Results - **2H24 Sales**: RMB 1,913.2 million, up 28.6% YoY, but 8% below Goldman Sachs estimates (GSe) and 7% below Wind consensus [1][5] - **2H24 Net Profit**: RMB 388.5 million, up 24.1% YoY, 6% below GSe and Wind consensus [1][3] - **2024 Full Year Revenue**: RMB 3,885 million, up 34.6% YoY, 4% below both GSe and consensus [1][3] - **2024 Full Year Net Profit**: RMB 880.6 million, up 33.0% YoY, 3% below GSe and consensus [1][3] - **Adjusted Net Income**: RMB 411 million for 2H24, up 31% YoY, 8% below GSe [1][3] Sales Performance by Category - **Color Cosmetics**: Grew by 41% YoY in 2H24 to RMB 1,219 million, representing 64% of sales mix, 2% above GSe [8] - **Skincare**: Increased by 10% YoY in 2H24 to RMB 614 million, 24% lower than GSe, representing 32% of sales mix [8] - **Makeup Artistry Training**: Grew by 24% YoY in 2H24 to RMB 80 million, 5% lower than GSe [8] Sales Performance by Channel - **Offline Sales**: Increased by 21% YoY in 2H24 to RMB 982 million, representing 51% of sales mix, 3% lower than GSe [9] - **Online Sales**: Grew by 40% YoY in 2H24 to RMB 851 million, representing 44% of sales mix, 14% lower than GSe [11] Margin Analysis - **Gross Margin**: Contracted by 1.3 percentage points YoY to 83.8%, largely in line with GSe [12] - **Operating Margin**: Increased by 0.5 percentage points YoY to 26.3%, above GSe of 25.8% [13] - **Net Margin**: Contracted by 0.7 percentage points YoY to 20.3%, above GSe of 19.9% [14] Dividend Information - **Dividend Payout**: Declared a final dividend of RMB 0.72 per share, with a total payout ratio of 154%, significantly above GSe of 124% [15] Future Outlook and Strategic Focus - **2025 Revenue/NI Outlook**: Discussion expected to focus on key drivers and strategies to balance color makeup and skincare [2] - **1Q25 Performance**: Anticipated updates on offline and online sales performance, including Women's Day recap [2] - **Branding/Product/Channel Strategies**: Emphasis on skincare category and online channel expansion [2] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: Include the pace of beauty consumption penetration in China, online penetration rates, and new product development in skincare [18][19] Valuation and Price Target - **Price Target**: HK$ 75, based on a 25x 2026E PE, with a downside of 34.2% from the current price of HK$ 113.90 [20][17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings call, highlighting the financial performance, sales breakdown, margin analysis, future outlook, and associated risks for Mao Geping Cosmetics Co.