东北证券发布研报称，中国消费市场正处在从物质消费向情绪消费的跃迁阶段，其中香水具备较低的上 手门槛和更广泛的应用场景，成为当代消费者追求情绪价值和自我体现的重要选择;其中国货香水品牌 紧跟国潮文化趋势而快速崛起，重点推荐品牌沉淀深厚，渠道布局广泛，香水产品差异化优势明显的毛 戈平(01318)。 东北证券主要观点如下： 香水市场：中国香水2023年规模达261亿元，预计2023-2028年CAGR为12.82% 伴随消费者对香水的认知度和接受度提升，中国香水渗透率和市场规模正稳步抬升，2023年中国内地 +香港+澳门香水规模已达261亿元，2018-2023年CAGR为12.32%，预计2023-2028年CAGR为12.82%。 中国香水市场占全球市场份额同样快速提高，2023年占3.68%，预计2028年份额将达5.67%，中国香水 市场展现出强劲增长势能。 市场趋势：中国香水渗透率低是经济发展的阶段性现象，随情绪消费兴起有望快速崛起 中国2023年人均香水额仅16元，远低于美国(423元)、英国(406元)、韩国(170元)和日本(47元)，中国香 水渗透率低并非文化和宗教等因素导致的必然结果，而是经济 ...

截至发稿， 老铺黄金(06181.HK)涨11.17%、 布鲁可(00325.HK)涨5.09%、 古茗(01364.HK)涨4.58%、 毛 戈平(01318.HK)涨3.10%。 ...

Group 1 - The next decade is considered the "golden decade" for Chinese IP, driven by the rise of "new consumption" themes in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly favored by younger generations and women [1][4] - The emotional consumption preferences of women are identified as a primary driver of the new consumption trend, with a focus on products that resonate emotionally rather than just functionally [2][3] - Companies like Pop Mart and others are experiencing significant stock price increases, indicating a growing interest from long-term foreign investors in high-margin themes related to Chinese innovation [3][4] Group 2 - The emotional connection to IP products is seen as a key factor in their global appeal, with the loneliness experienced by the only-child generation enhancing their emotional reliance on these products [4][7] - The growth of new consumption is expected to continue, with projections indicating that sectors like trendy toys and new beverage brands will benefit from changing consumer behaviors and the increasing popularity of domestic brands [4][6] - The valuation of new consumption companies is becoming challenging, with some companies reaching high static PE ratios, necessitating a focus on growth metrics like PEG [5][6] Group 3 - The importance of international expansion is emphasized, with companies like Pop Mart planning significant store openings in Southeast Asia and Australia, and experiencing substantial revenue growth in these regions [7] - Sustained innovation is crucial for maintaining high profit margins, with a shift from traditional low-margin manufacturing to high-margin businesses driven by proprietary IP and technological advancements [8][9] - Companies in various sectors, including toys, gold retail, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, are achieving high gross margins, indicating a broader trend of improving profitability through innovation and R&D investment [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback of Hong Kong's "new consumption forces" follows a period of exuberance, driven by profit-taking ahead of the "6.18" shopping festival, a wave of stock unlocks, and valuation discrepancies that have raised market caution [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 5, notable consumer stocks such as Lao Pu Gold, Mixue Ice City, and Pop Mart experienced significant declines, with Lao Pu Gold dropping over 9%, Mixue Group down over 7.7%, and Mao Ge Ping down over 6.6% [3]. - Despite the pullback, the valuations of these "new consumption stocks" remain significantly higher than their A-share counterparts, with Lao Pu Gold's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio reaching 107.9 times, far exceeding A-share competitors [2][9]. - As of June 4, Lao Pu Gold's market capitalization was HKD 171.6 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 315%, while Pop Mart and Mixue Group saw increases of 175.53% and 112.24%, respectively [3][9]. Group 2: Valuation Discrepancies - The high valuations of Hong Kong's "new consumption forces" are attributed to several factors, including concentrated shareholding, which creates a natural "scarcity effect" [14][15]. - Lao Pu Gold's major shareholders control 92.99% of the company's shares, while Mixue Group's founders hold over 80% [15]. - The valuation premium for these companies is also supported by their strong performance in the young consumer market, focusing on emotional value and innovative marketing strategies [15][16]. Group 3: Future Implications - Analysts suggest that the performance of Hong Kong's new consumption leaders could influence A-share markets, with the potential for a ripple effect in consumer sectors [12][17]. - The ongoing valuation recovery in Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng Technology Index's P/E ratio at approximately 20.17 times, indicates a trend of re-evaluation of assets [16]. - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is seen as a potential leader, with the possibility of expanding into A-share markets, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [17].

2025.05. 28 本文字数：2252，阅读时长大约4分钟 导读 ：新消费迎来港股IPO热潮 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 上海市区某处泡泡玛特抽盒机 图片来源：第一财经记者齐琦拍摄 业内普遍认为，资金开始押注消费赛道，但在同质化竞争加剧的背景下，市场不禁发问：下一个"泡 泡玛特"或"蜜雪冰城"会否诞生？失去先发优势的消费股又该如何突围？ 新消费"角逐"港股市场 在政策支持、流动性改善与估值修复的三重驱动下，新消费企业掀起赴港上市热潮。 据Wind统计，截至5月28日，年内排队港股IPO的企业159家（申请状态为处理中、聆讯通过），其 中消费类企业25家，占比约16%。 例如潮玩盲盒行业的卡游、52TOYS，茶饮赛道有八马茶业，黄金珠宝饰品领域有周六福、铜师傅， 食品领域更加集中，包括牧原食品股份、三只松鼠、溜溜果园等。 "情绪消费"浪潮下，盲盒、潮玩、医美、新茶饮等新消费势力正重塑商业格局，港股市场悄然成为现 象级品牌的资本主场。 值得关注的是，今年新消费股在二级市场上的火热表现离不开港股市场的大幅回暖。南向资金持续涌 入，为港股市场注入流动性。据Wind统计，2025年以来南向资金净流入额达到6369.1 ...

新消费迎来港股IPO热潮 在政策支持、流动性改善与估值修复的三重驱动下，新消费企业掀起赴港上市热潮。 据Wind统计，截至5月28日，年内排队港股IPO的企业159家（申请状态为处理中、聆讯通过），其中消费类企业25家，占比约16%。 例如潮玩盲盒行业的卡游、52TOYS，茶饮赛道有八马茶业，黄金珠宝饰品领域有周六福、铜师傅，食品领域更加集中，包括牧原食品股份、三只松鼠、溜 溜果园等。 "情绪消费"浪潮下，盲盒、潮玩、医美、新茶饮等新消费势力正重塑商业格局，港股市场悄然成为现象级品牌的资本主场。 2025年以来，港股迎来新消费企业上市潮，蜜雪集团（02097.HK）、老铺黄金（06181.HK）、毛戈平（01318.HK）等多家新消费公司上市，并在市场上有 不错的表现。 供给端也热情高涨，近日潮玩公司乐自天成（下称"52TOYS"）、餐饮品牌绿茶集团接连向港交所递交招股书，老乡鸡、八马茶业、鸣鸣很忙等企业亦在排 队序列中。 二级市场上，中证港股通消费主题指数年内涨幅超20%，新消费板块继续逆势上涨，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）股价续创历史新高，总市值一度突破3100亿港 元，5月以来的累计涨幅达11.76%； ...

毛戈平 20250523 公司整体利润率良好，不排除未来有额外盈利机会。2025 年 6 月和 12 月分别有 7.5%和 35%的股份解禁，港股情绪较好，可能带来退出或新 入场机会，公司或采取措施稳定股价。 预计公司在 2025 年的归母净利润将达到 12 亿元，线下增速 22%，线 上增速达 51%，线上直销占到 14.3 亿元，经销约 3.5 亿人民币，线下 经销商销售额仅 8,700 万元。 当前市场对毛戈平公司的关注点是什么？ 市场目前主要关注两个方向：一是护肤品的占比及其未来发展的确定性；二是 当前的经营节奏。从护肤品情况来看，2024 年下半年增速环比走弱，仅有十 来个点，相较于以往二三十个点甚至更高的增长有所下降。这被认为是商品策 略和经营节奏的调整结果。在线上推广方面，公司仍然以抖音为主，通过自有 直播间和达人视频号共同带货推动销量。在大单品集中效应明显的情况下，如 防晒霜、鱼子精华系列等优质产品在线下表现良好，但在线上的曝光率不高。 然而，这些产品在实际销售中已经取得了显著成绩。 毛戈平公司如何看待护肤品未来的发展？ 公司对护肤品未来的发展持乐观态度。尽管 2024 年下半年护肤品占比较少 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has a long history and strong brand heritage, founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping in 2000, establishing significant brand influence in the Chinese beauty industry [6][10] - The brand is experiencing accelerated growth and has substantial room for expansion, with a diverse range of high-repurchase products in the makeup category [6] - The company is driven by both product and channel strategies, continuously innovating in product offerings and maintaining a dual-channel approach for sales [6] - The brand has strong resource barriers, including a well-known professional makeup artist IP and unique high-end department store resources, which enhance consumer relationships and brand value [6] - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate significant growth, with expected revenues of 5.368 billion, 6.976 billion, and 8.785 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, and net profits of 1.2 billion, 1.58 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB respectively [6] Company Overview - Mao Geping Cosmetics Co., Ltd. has established itself as a leader in the high-end beauty market in China, with a focus on makeup, skincare, and makeup training [10][11] - The company has two main brands: MAOGEPING and Zhi Ai Zhong Sheng, with a product mix that includes makeup, skincare, and training services [10] Financial Performance - The company's revenue grew from 1.577 billion RMB in 2021 to 2.886 billion RMB in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 58% in 2023 [11] - The net profit increased from 331 million RMB in 2021 to 881 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33% [11] Market Analysis - The Chinese beauty market is projected to continue growing, with the skincare and makeup sectors expected to reach a market size of 876.3 billion RMB by 2028, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% [25] - High-end beauty brands are experiencing steeper growth curves compared to mass-market brands, with the high-end segment expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.9% from 2023 to 2028 [29][30] Product Strategy - The company is expanding its product lines in both makeup and skincare, with a focus on high-quality, high-priced products that reflect its premium positioning [63][81] - The makeup line includes a variety of products, with a strong emphasis on foundation and color cosmetics, while the skincare line is designed to enhance makeup application [64][69] Channel Strategy - The company employs a dual-channel strategy, leveraging both online and offline sales channels to maximize reach and consumer engagement [82] - The offline channel is expected to recover and grow, while online sales continue to dominate, reflecting changing consumer preferences [35][59]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The launch of the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series by the company is expected to create a new growth point through differentiation in the market [2][3] - The global fragrance market is projected to reach between $57 billion and $61 billion in 2024, with significant growth potential in the Chinese market, which currently accounts for only 6% of the global market [3] - The company has established a unique brand culture and competitive advantage in the high-end beauty market, positioning itself to capture more market share and achieve stable growth [5][7] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company officially launched the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series on May 8, with three main products priced at 680 RMB for 45ml and 200 RMB for 10ml, alongside a 2ml sample priced at 19.9 RMB [2] Market Analysis - The fragrance market shows strong resilience compared to the overall beauty market, with significant growth opportunities for domestic brands in China, as evidenced by nearly 100,000 new fragrance-related companies registered in 2023 [3][4] Product Differentiation - The company's perfume products emphasize emotional expression and cultural themes, differentiating them from foreign brands, and targeting the mid-to-high-end market segment with a pricing strategy that avoids direct competition with high-priced international brands [4][5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025 - 50.54 billion RMB, 2026 - 65.03 billion RMB, and 2027 - 82.58 billion RMB, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.6% for net profit from 2024 to 2027 [7][9] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.42 RMB, 3.07 RMB, and 3.91 RMB respectively, indicating strong growth potential [7][9] Competitive Positioning - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rising trend of domestic cultural products and consumer upgrades, maintaining a strong brand image and competitive pricing compared to Western brands [6][7]