振江股份20250408

Summary of the Conference Call for Zhenjiang Co., Ltd. Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Zhenjiang Co., Ltd., focusing on its operations in the photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy sectors, particularly in the U.S. and Saudi Arabia markets [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Photovoltaic Business in the U.S. - In 2024, Zhenjiang's exports to the U.S. accounted for only 3.9% of total business, primarily in fasteners and cabin components [3][21]. - The U.S. factory mainly produces PV brackets, with expected shipments of approximately 80,000 tons in 2025, a significant increase from 30,000 tons in 2024 [3][30]. - The customer base is diversifying, including companies like ATI NexTracker, IDP, and Trina Solar, with orders already placed [3][14]. - The U.S. factory benefits from local production, avoiding tariff impacts, and is expected to contribute positively to earnings in Q2 2025 despite subsidy suspensions [3][16][29]. Photovoltaic Business in Saudi Arabia - The Saudi factory is set to commence operations in December 2024, with an anticipated shipment of 40,000 tons in 2025 to meet local demand [5][17]. - A dual exclusivity agreement with GCS ensures that Zhenjiang will be the sole supplier for GCS's orders, indicating strong market demand [5][17]. Wind Energy Sector Opportunities - The wind energy segment is experiencing growth due to the increasing size of offshore wind turbines, with rotor value increasing by 50% [6]. - The decline in raw material prices has restored gross margins to historical highs, and Zhenjiang's tower business is gaining market share due to anti-dumping exemptions in Vietnam [6]. - Collaboration with Siemens on assembly operations is expected to provide stable revenue through significant orders until 2030 [6]. Gas Turbine Business Development - Zhenjiang has captured a 30% market share in providing gas turbine generator housings and bases for Siemens, with potential expansion into gas turbine assembly [7]. Exoskeleton Robot Project - The exoskeleton robot project is expanding into outdoor sports and elderly assistance, with plans for mass production of lower limb exoskeletons by 2025 and shoulder joint prototypes [8]. - The technology aims to enhance user quality of life and reduce physical strain, targeting both industrial and consumer markets [8][27]. Product Transition and Profitability - The main export product for Baolai has shifted from 11 MW to 14 MW wind turbines, with profit margins returning to historical highs due to better pricing and lower raw material costs [9]. Assembly Business and Order Conversion - Framework orders are expected to convert into actual orders by July and August, with a high historical conversion rate [10][23]. - The Nantong assembly plant is ramping up production, with significant contributions expected in 2026 [10][13]. Local Supply Considerations - Current local supply needs are limited due to the focus on direct-drive wind turbines, but future domestic casting capacity may be developed [11]. European Market Outlook - Long-term contracts with Siemens and Vestas are expected to stabilize revenue, with a projected 15% compound annual growth rate in European offshore wind over the next five years [22]. Revenue and Risk Factors - Zhenjiang aims for a revenue target of 6 billion yuan for 2025, supported by existing orders, with potential risks including production delays and shipping issues [24]. Financial Performance Expectations - The overall performance in wind and PV sectors is expected to align with forecasts, with a recovery in U.S. production anticipated in 2025 [25]. U.S. Solar Installation Projections - The U.S. solar installation capacity is projected to exceed 40 GW in 2025, a significant increase from 30 GW in 2024, despite subsidy suspensions [26]. Pricing Trends in U.S. Solar Market - The processing fee for U.S. solar brackets has decreased from $380-$400 per ton in 2024 to $350 per ton in 2025, with expectations for price stability moving forward [29]. Additional Important Information - The company is actively exploring the consumer market for exoskeleton robots, with plans for product launches and user experience events in the near future [27][28].