潍柴动力-强劲盈利能力未被充分认识，评级为买入

Summary of Weichai Power Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Weichai Power (000338.SZ) - Industry: Heavy-duty truck (HDT) engines and machinery Key Points and Arguments 1. Earnings Performance: Weichai has renewed its peak engine earnings despite a 35% decline in HDT industry sales volume compared to the previous cycle peak [3][4][11] 2. Sales Volume Trends: The sales volume of Weichai's HDT engines is projected to be lower, yet the company is expected to achieve higher earnings due to improved unit profitability and a more profitable engine portfolio [6][8][11] 3. Market Share Expansion: Weichai is expanding its overall market share, which is expected to offset the reduced total addressable market (TAM) outlook for HDT engines [7][11] 4. Growth Drivers: The company anticipates new growth drivers, including HDT electrification, large-bore engine applications, and off-highway machinery, to support future earnings [6][7][11] 5. Profitability Outlook: Weichai's engine portfolio is considered structurally more profitable, which has been overlooked by the market [8][11] 6. Cycle-over-Cycle Earnings: The earnings prospects for Weichai are described as stronger on a cycle-over-cycle basis, which is rare within the China machinery coverage [11] Important but Overlooked Content 1. Valuation Metrics: Weichai's H-share is valued at a 13x 2025E P/E, with a target price of HK$22.00/share, reflecting an earnings upgrade and improving earnings prospects [15] 2. Risks: Key risks include slower-than-expected macro activity, weaker global economic growth, a shift towards higher electrification penetration, and unfavorable changes in Sinotruk's engine sourcing arrangement [14] 3. Market Dynamics: The report highlights the competitive landscape, including the performance of other companies in the sector, which may impact Weichai's market position [23] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the Weichai Power conference call, focusing on the company's performance, market dynamics, and future outlook.