潍柴动力 20250407 Q&A 潍柴动力的业务结构和未来发展潜力如何？ 摘要 潍柴动力旗下不仅有重型卡车电动化业务，还有几种高端装备业务，尤其是近 期显露出来的 AIDC 研发以及物流设备业务。这些业务受下游需求增加的拉动， 与近期关税扰动没有直接关系。同时，公司旗下的重卡产业链业务将受益于今 年国内顺周期修复。预计公司今明后三年的业绩分别为 126 亿元、152 亿元和 170 亿元。目前公司估值约为十倍左右。 潍柴动力的业务可以从两个维度进行 梳理：发动机制造和非发动机部件。发动机制造主要集中在母公司，包括重卡 和非重卡；非发动机部件则主要在子公司中，如陕重汽、法士特、西安板块的 • 潍柴动力受益于国内顺周期修复及以旧换新政策，预计重卡产业链景气度 提升，2025 年国内重卡终端销量有望从 60 万台修复至 72 万台，加上出口， 总体销量可达 102 万-103 万台，同比增长明显。 • 潍柴动力在大缸径发动机领域布局较早，AIDC 柴油发电设备市场规模接近 2000 亿元，国产替代空间巨大，有望成为公司新的业绩增长点，预计未来 该业务将保持中高速增长，贡献超过 10%的业绩。 • 凯傲集团作为潍柴 ...

1 April 2025 | 5:44PM HKT Weichai Power (000338.SZ) Buy Strong earnings power underappreciated; reiterate Buy with higher estimates and TP | 000338.SZ | 12m Price Target: Rmb24.00 | Price: Rmb16.41 | Upside: 46.3% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2338.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$22.00 | Price: HK$16.38 | Upside: 34.3% | Despite a +21%/+42% rally for Weichai's A/H shares (vs. +2%/+21% for CSI300/HSCEI) since the start of the year, we see further upside from here. On top of what we discussed in our initiation repo ...

证券研究报告 潍柴动力 (2338 HK/000338 CH) 港股通 业绩与分红超预期,步入业绩释放通道 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 02 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 商用车 | 公司 24 年收入 2157 亿元/yoy+1%，归母净利润 114 亿元/yoy+27%，24Q4 收入 537 亿元/yoy+0.3%,归母净利润 30 亿元/yoy+19%,盈利向上支撑公司 股利支付率提升至 55%。随着重卡行业向上带动发动机盈利继续提升、多 元业务步入业绩释放,公司盈利弹性与分红潜力可期,维持 A/H 股买入评级。 ①发动机：24 年内销 6.7 万台/yoy-1%，份额 28%左右，外销 6.9 万台 /yoy+5%，其中大缸径出货约 8100 台/同比持平，得益于降本增效+产品结 构改善，单台发动机盈利 1.24 万元/yoy+2.6 千元，净利率 21%/yoy+6pct。 ②凯傲：凯傲集团 24 年收入同比+30%，净利润同比+17.5%，净利率 3.1%/yoy+0.7pct，基本已走出通胀和供应链 ...

证券代码：000338.SZ/2338.HK 证券简称：潍柴动力 潍柴动力股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20250401 | | ■特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 投资者关系活动 类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称及 | 国投证券 王逊、徐自刚 | | 人员姓名 | | | 时间 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 9:00-10:00 | | 地点 | 公司科技大楼会议室 | | 上市公司接待人 | 王丽、赵红蕾 | | 员姓名 | | | | 来访者在公司会议室就关注问题与公司进行了交流，交流 主要内容包括： | | | 1.公司如何判断重卡行业今年及长期的整体趋势？ | | | 预计 2025 年重卡行业销量同比增长约 10%。主要驱动因素 | | | 包括：内需方面，国四排放标准货车报废更新政策推动更新置 | | 投资者关系活动 | 换需求逐渐释放（据不完全统计，国四重卡保有量约 80 万辆）。 | | 主要内容介绍 | 出口市场预计 ...

证券代码：000338.SZ/2338.HK 证券简称：潍柴动力 潍柴动力股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20250328 | | ■特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | | | 类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | ■现场参观 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 | 受邀投资者 52 人 | | 时间 | 年 月 日 2025 3 28 11:00-12:00 | | 地点 | 烟台 | | 上市公司接待人 | 马常海 董事长 | | | 王德成 总经理 | | | 王翠萍 财务总监 | | 员姓名 | 郭圣刚 副总经理 | | | 程广旭 副总经理 | | | 王 丽 董事会秘书 | | 投资者关系活动 | 管理层就公司 2024 年经营表现和未来发展与投资者进行 了沟通和交流。随后，来访者参观了新能源产业园，交流主要 | | | 内容包括： | | | 1.公司在未来的发展战略上有什么新的规划？后续公司业 | | 主要内容介绍 | 务转型主要方向有哪些？ | | | 20 ...

中信证券股份有限公司 关于潍柴动力股份有限公司 2024 年年度募集资金存放与使用情况的核查意见 中信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"或"保荐机构"）作为潍柴动力股份 有限公司（以下简称"潍柴动力"或"公司"）非公开发行股票及持续督导的保荐机构， 根据中国证券监督管理委员会（下称"中国证监会"）发布的《上市公司监管指引第 2 号 ——上市公司募集资金管理和使用的监管要求》和深圳证券交易所（下称"深交所"）发 布的《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——主板上市公司规范运作》等有关 规定，对潍柴动力 2024 年年度募集资金存放与使用情况进行了核查，核查情况及核查意 见如下： 一、募集资金基本情况 （一）实际募集资金数额和资金到位时间 经中国证监会核发的《关于核准潍柴动力股份有限公司非公开发行股票的批复》（证 监许可[2021]1407 号），公司非公开发行不超过 793,387,389 股新股。本次发行实际发行 数量为 792,682,926 股，每股面值 1 元，发行价格为每股 16.40 元，共募集资金人民币 12,999,999,986.40 元，扣除与本次发行有关的保荐承销费、审计及验 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power with a target price of 20.86 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 16.30 CNY [1][13]. Core Insights - Weichai Power has demonstrated a comprehensive improvement in the operational quality of its subsidiaries, leading to enhanced profitability. The company has managed to overcome pressures from a low-performing industry, with a slight increase in revenue and a significant rise in net profit [8][9]. - The heavy truck industry faced a slight decline in sales, but Weichai Power's diversified business strategy has allowed it to maintain stable growth across various segments, including engine sales and exports [8][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing market for natural gas heavy trucks, which have shown a significant increase in sales due to favorable policies and cost advantages [8][9]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, Weichai Power reported a revenue of 2156.91 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 114.03 billion CNY, up 26.51% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company forecasts revenue growth to 2716.13 billion CNY in 2025, with a projected net profit of 129.98 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 13.98% [3][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 22.4%, with a net margin of 6.6%, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [8][10]. Business Segments Performance - The revenue from complete vehicles and key components is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 52.8% in 2025 [10]. - The intelligent logistics segment is projected to maintain steady growth at 5% annually, while agricultural equipment is expected to see a moderate increase in revenue [10]. - The company’s subsidiaries, including Shaanxi Heavy Truck, have shown impressive performance, with net profits increasing significantly [8][9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Weichai Power is positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for natural gas engines and the expansion of data center operations, which are expected to drive future growth [8][9]. - The company is anticipated to achieve a net profit of 150.21 billion CNY by 2026, with a corresponding PE ratio of 10 [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power with a target price of 20.86 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 16.30 CNY [1][13]. Core Insights - Weichai Power has demonstrated a comprehensive improvement in the operational quality of its subsidiaries, leading to enhanced profitability. The company has managed to navigate industry pressures effectively, with a slight increase in revenue and a significant rise in net profit [8][10]. - The heavy truck industry faced a slight decline in sales, yet Weichai Power's various business segments are showing stable upward trends. The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for natural gas heavy trucks due to recent policy changes [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, Weichai Power reported a revenue of 2156.91 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.81%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 114.03 billion CNY, marking a 26.51% increase [3][8]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 22.4%, up by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 6.6%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [8][10]. - The forecast for the next three years indicates a steady growth in revenue and net profit, with expected net profits of 129.98 billion CNY, 150.21 billion CNY, and 169.97 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][15]. Business Segment Performance - The revenue from complete vehicles and key components is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated increase of 52.8% in 2025. The intelligent logistics segment is expected to maintain a steady growth rate of 5% annually [10][15]. - The natural gas heavy truck segment is anticipated to see increased sales due to favorable policies, with a projected sales volume of 17.8 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 for 2025, which is lower than the average PE of 17 for comparable companies, indicating potential undervaluation [13][14]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are projected to be 1.49 CNY, 1.72 CNY, and 1.95 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][15].

2025年以来，中国重卡行业迎来多重利好共振，景气度显著回升的态势已现端倪。这一趋势既得益于制造业和建筑业 的协同复苏，也受益于政策红利释放与产业技术变革的双重驱动。 从宏观环境看，制造业PMI连续两月站上荣枯线，1-2月均值达49.65%，总体好于2024年，其中装备制造业PMI普遍突 破53%高位，显示工业生产动能强劲。与之形成呼应的是，建筑业PMI在节后快速回升至52.7%，土木工程指数更突破 60%关口，基建项目复工节奏明显加快。这种制造业提质增效与基建投资发力的组合，直接激活了物流运输与工程机 械两大重卡需求核心场景。 市场数据也印证了行业拐点的确立，2025年2月我国重卡批售量达8万辆，同比大幅增长34%，环比上升11%，创近四 年同期次高水平。 当前，重卡行业正站在"油车换新+新能源替代+海外扩容"的新周期起点。随着物流需求回暖、技术迭代加速与政策红 利延续，产业链相关企业有望在供需共振下打开百万级增量空间，向高质量发展阶段加速迈进。那么聚焦到公司上， 有哪些企业已经做好准备？成为资本市场关注的重点。 正值潍柴动力发布其2024年财报，提供了不错的观察样本。头部企业代表行业先进的生产力，往往也是 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power [6] Core Views - Weichai Power achieved a revenue of 215.69 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.40 billion yuan, up 26.51% year-on-year [2][4] - The company is advancing six strategic layouts to support long-term development, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 projected at 12.76 billion, 14.47 billion, and 15.40 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 11.14X, 9.83X, and 9.24X [2][4] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 55% in 2024, with an average dividend payout ratio of 60% anticipated for 2025, leading to a dividend yield of approximately 5.4% based on current market capitalization [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Weichai Power reported revenue of 53.74 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 8.64% [2][4] - The net profit for Q4 was 3.00 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.46% and a year-on-year increase of 20.21% [2][4] - The gross margin for Q4 was 24.15%, up 0.49 percentage points year-on-year [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on six strategic directions, including adjusting product, business, and market structures, accelerating the transition to new energy and digital intelligence, and expanding into high-end markets [2][4] - The demand for high-end large-bore products is expected to increase, particularly in sectors such as data centers and mining [2] Market Outlook - The heavy truck industry is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, supported by policies encouraging vehicle replacements [2][4] - The report highlights the potential for continued high growth in various business segments, including high-margin products and agricultural equipment [2]