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恒立液压20250415

Summary of the Conference Call for Hengli Hydraulic Company Overview - Hengli Hydraulic is a core component supplier for excavators, with stable production schedules in its pump and valve factory. The company experienced a year-on-year growth in Q1, although it was slightly lower than that of the main engine manufacturers. [2][4] Key Points and Arguments - Q1 Performance and Future Outlook: The company expects improved performance in Q2, with full production capacity and increased employee overtime since March, leading to a significant recovery in revenue and profit. [2][4] - Non-Excavator Business Growth: Nearly half of the company's revenue comes from non-excavator businesses. Although high-end business saw a significant decline in Q1, the continuous expansion of non-high-end business is noteworthy and may provide new growth points. [2][4] - Engineering Machinery Industry Cycle: The third round of the engineering machinery cycle has begun, with low domestic inventory levels. Data from Komatsu regarding operating hours and excavator sales indicate a marginal improvement in industry conditions. The excavator industry is expected to enter a proactive inventory replenishment cycle in the next two to three years, presenting opportunities for Hengli Hydraulic. [2][5][6] - Second-Hand Machinery Market: The opening of overseas channels for second-hand machinery is accelerating the domestic renewal cycle, which will increase demand for Hengli Hydraulic's products. [2][6] - Humanoid Robotics Sector: Hengli Hydraulic has shown strong performance in the humanoid robotics field, supplying Tesla with thigh joint planetary roller screw modules and engaging in 14 joint modules and micro screws. The likelihood of securing Tesla orders in Q2 and Q3 is high. [2][7] - Client Expansion in Robotics: The company is actively expanding its client base in the humanoid robotics sector, including domestic companies like XPeng, Seres, and Xiaomi, as well as tech firms like ByteDance. Continuous improvements in micro ball screw processing technology enhance its competitiveness in this field. [2][7] Additional Important Insights - Current Market Valuation: Hengli Hydraulic's current market capitalization is approximately 90 billion RMB, with an expected 10% growth in its main business by 2025, corresponding to a profit of about 2.8 billion RMB. The main business is valued at around 80 billion RMB, while the humanoid robotics segment is expected to be valued at over 10 billion RMB. The company has manageable downside risks and high upside potential, suggesting favorable investment opportunities. [3][8]