嘉友国际20250428

Summary of the Conference Call for 嘉友国际 Company Overview - 嘉友国际 reported a 34% year-on-year decline in net profit for 2024, with a 15% decline in Q1 2025, although there was a quarter-on-quarter improvement compared to Q4 2024, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [2][4][3]. Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Conditions - The coking coal market is under pressure, leading to increased inventory at 甘其毛都 port and declining freight rates. However, with domestic coking coal price increases and reduced port inventory, the downside for coking coal prices is limited, suggesting potential improvement in trade and logistics profits for the company [2][4][8]. - Coking coal prices fell by 40% last year, significantly impacting traders, but the company has managed to clear most of the risks associated with its coking coal business [4][8]. Strategic Partnerships and Growth Opportunities - 嘉友国际 signed a new ten-year long-term agreement with MMC, which is expected to increase coking coal delivery volumes this year. As coking coal prices stabilize, the gross profit per ton from supply chain trade is anticipated to improve, driving performance growth in the 中蒙 market [2][5][6]. - The African market is becoming a significant growth driver, with projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, and Tanzania expected to enhance throughput and revenue. The company has already launched the 卡萨 project and plans to operationalize the Zambia project in the second half of the year [2][7][10]. Logistics and Infrastructure Expansion - 嘉友国际 is expanding its cross-border logistics network in Africa by acquiring a local transport fleet in Zambia, managing over 1,000 vehicles. This move is expected to significantly increase revenue from the African market as the contract logistics share is currently below 10% [2][7][9]. - The company plans to expand its coking coal supply chain trade at 策克 and 满都拉 ports, leveraging high-quality coal resources to enhance the scale of integrated trade [2][8]. Financial Outlook and Investment Recommendations - Despite facing pressure on growth in Q2 2025 and for the full year, 嘉友国际 has increased its dividend, with a payout ratio of 53.5% and a dividend yield close to 5%. The current valuation is approximately 10 times earnings, indicating limited downside risk and presenting a good opportunity for long-term investors [3][13]. - The company believes that the risks have been largely released, and both cyclical and growth aspects of its business will continue to expand, providing a bullish outlook for future performance [12]. Performance Projections - The future performance growth is expected to come from the 中蒙 market, with increased supply chain trade volumes and improved profit margins as coking coal prices stabilize. In Africa, the completion of infrastructure projects will contribute to revenue growth [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - The core incremental growth in the African market will primarily come from increased throughput from the 卡萨 project and contract logistics, with additional contributions expected from the Zambia and Tanzania projects [10][11]. - The company is viewed as a combination of cyclical and growth business opportunities, making it an attractive option for investors looking for potential high performance growth [12].