Northern Oil and Gas(NOG) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company generated approximately $136 million in free cash flow, up 41% sequentially, with total average daily production at about 135,000 BOE per day, reflecting a 2.5% increase from Q4 2024 [20][21] - Adjusted EBITDA reached a record of approximately $435 million, marking a significant performance improvement [21] - The company maintained a low leverage ratio, ending the quarter with net debt reduced by approximately $90 million, resulting in a net debt to LQAEBITDA ratio around 1.3 times [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added 27.3 net wells to production in Q1, with the Permian Basin accounting for 40% of the activity [13] - The first quarter elections saw a 23% increase in lateral lengths compared to last year's average, leading to a 10% decrease in normalized well costs [15] - Gas production increased by 6.5% sequentially and 14% year over year, contributing 42% to the overall production mix [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil prices averaged around $70 per barrel, while gas prices were approximately $3.50 per MMBtu during Q1 [8] - Oil differentials were reported at $5.79 per barrel, above the high end of the guided range, while natural gas realizations were at 100% of benchmark prices [21][22] - The company expects improvements in oil differentials moving forward, maintaining guidance for gas realizations for the remainder of the year [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a flexible capital allocation strategy focused on risk-adjusted returns, balancing growth investments, debt reduction, and share buybacks [11] - NOG aims to leverage downturns for high-return investments, with a proven track record of capital reallocation during pricing resets [9] - The company is actively engaged in over 10 M&A processes, focusing on total returns while being mindful of the balance sheet [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the adaptability of the company's model in response to market volatility, emphasizing the importance of maintaining profitability amid changing commodity prices [6][10] - The outlook for production levels remains stable for 2025, barring significant curtailments or shut-ins, with potential adjustments to CapEx spending based on market conditions [25] - Management expressed optimism about finding creative ways to deploy capital as operators look to reduce capital exposure [18] Other Important Information - The company exited Q1 with over $900 million in liquidity, including $34 million in cash and $870 million available on its revolving credit facility [24] - The CapEx guidance for the year includes $200 million to $300 million in growth capital, with a maintenance level of $850 million to $900 million [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Production cadence outlook for the rest of the year - Management expects production cadence to be lower in Q2 and early Q3, with Q4 anticipated to see the highest production levels [28][30] Question: Service pricing comparison to the start of the year - AFE costs have seen about a 10% decrease, driven by increased lateral lengths, while drilling rates remain sticky [34][38] Question: Impact of oil and gas outlook on potential sellers of non-operated interests - There has been an acceleration in transaction screening, with operators looking to offload non-operated assets due to capital constraints [41][46] Question: Maintenance CapEx estimates for 2026 and 2027 - Maintenance CapEx is expected to remain around $850 million, assuming no changes in drilling costs [56] Question: Production taxes and gas prices relative to full-year guidance - Production taxes are expected to trend back into the guided range as the production mix shifts towards the Permian [60]