伯恩斯坦：中国互联网：外卖大战？表面是，实则非

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the China Internet industry, specifically the competitive dynamics between JD and Meituan in the food delivery sector [1][12]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. E-commerce Share Competition: JD's entry into food delivery is primarily a defensive move to protect its General Merchandise market share from Meituan's growth in Instashopping [2][14]. 2. Growth Projections: Meituan's Instashopping is projected to generate approximately RMB330 billion in Gross Transaction Value (GTV) by 2025, while JD's General Merchandise GMV is expected to exceed RMB2 trillion this year [2][14]. 3. Order Volume Dynamics: JD reported reaching 10 million daily food delivery orders, largely due to heavy user subsidies and minimal merchant monetization [3][17]. 4. Profit Impact on Meituan: The pressure from JD's growth is expected to affect Meituan's order volume more than its profits, as larger chain restaurants, which are less reliant on online traffic, dominate the short-tail dining segment [4][22]. 5. Market Sentiment and Valuation: Despite significant market sell-offs, the risk-reward for both JD and Meituan is viewed positively, with expectations that the peak fear of competition has already occurred [5][54]. 6. Investment Implications: JD's strategy may involve transitioning from aggressive order volume growth to establishing a sustainable unit economics model, potentially leading to charging merchants a take rate [7][19]. Additional Important Insights 1. Long Tail vs. Short Tail Demand: The restaurant demand is characterized as long tail, with JD focusing on the shorter tail, which is less profitable and occupied by larger chain operators [3][20]. 2. Rider Incentives: JD has begun reducing rider incentives and is asking merchants to share the burden of user subsidies, indicating a shift in strategy to manage losses [3][7]. 3. Competitive Landscape: The competition between JD, Meituan, and Alibaba is expected to drive e-commerce share gains at the expense of other peers, suggesting a broader impact on the industry [8][24]. 4. Valuation Comparisons: Current valuations for JD and Meituan are seen as attractive, with JD trading at approximately 7x 2026E PE and Meituan at 13x 2026E PE [10][52]. 5. Future Outlook: Both companies are expected to improve as competition rationalizes, with investors likely to reassess valuations based on 2026E PE multiples [54][55]. Financial Forecasts - JD's Revenue Projections: Expected to reach RMB1.27 trillion in 2025, with a non-GAAP operating profit of RMB46.94 billion [66]. - Meituan's Revenue Projections: Expected to reach RMB386.49 billion in 2025, with a non-GAAP net income of RMB49.20 billion [65]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the competitive dynamics, financial projections, and strategic implications for JD and Meituan within the China Internet industry.