Upstart(US:UPST)2025-05-06 20:30Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was approximately $213 million, representing a 67% year-on-year increase [26] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $43 million, marking a significant improvement in operating leverage [30] - GAAP net loss was $2 million, which was better than expectations, reflecting strong net interest income performance [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Platform originations grew 89% year-on-year, with personal loan originations up 83% year-on-year [5][8] - Home and Auto lending saw sequential growth rates of 5242% and 42% respectively [6][13] - HELOC originations grew 52% quarter-on-quarter and more than 6x year-on-year [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The volume of loan transactions across the platform was approximately 241,000, up 102% from the prior year [27] - Average loan size increased to approximately $8,865 from $8,580 in the prior quarter [28] - The Upstart Macro Index remains elevated but stable, indicating improving consumer financial health [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to return to GAAP net income profitability in the second half of 2025 [22] - Focus on enhancing AI capabilities and expanding product offerings to maintain competitive advantage [21] - Plans to diversify funding sources and strengthen partnerships, with over 50% of loan funding in committed partnerships [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in adapting to changing macroeconomic conditions, despite potential risks from government trade policies [7] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain stable, with no explicit expectation of rate cuts [32] - Management remains cautious about fixed costs and hiring, reflecting a conservative approach to business planning [75] Other Important Information - The company has signed a one-year agreement with Walmart's fintech subsidiary, One Pay, to offer products to Walmart customers [36] - The introduction of machine learning techniques, such as embeddings, is expected to enhance credit performance predictions [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the Walmart partnership? - The company signed a one-year agreement with Walmart's fintech, One Pay, to make products available to Walmart customers, which has already been launched [36][37] Question: Can you provide trends in April and early May? - Management indicated that guidance captures the current quarter's trends, providing limited additional color [39] Question: How should we think about conversion rates for the remainder of the year? - Conversion rates increased from 14% to 19%, with expectations to drive them higher through improved models and automation [44] Question: Why was the 2025 outlook not increased despite new funding? - The company was never short of funding; the gating item is the economic acquisition of the right borrowers [104] Question: How have funding partners reacted to market volatility? - Committed partnerships are performing as designed, with no pullbacks from private credit partners or banks [72] Question: How is the company adapting to macroeconomic changes? - The company relies on adaptive models and conservatism in planning, with no assumptions of Fed rate cuts this year [75]