PROG (US:PRG)2025-04-23 12:30Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $684.1 million, a 6.6% increase year over year, driven by a larger lease portfolio and higher purchase activity [9][27] - Adjusted EBITDA was $70.3 million, slightly down from $72.6 million in the previous year [27] - Non-GAAP EPS was $0.90, exceeding the high end of the outlook [10][27] - The lease portfolio balance increased by 6.1% year over year, compared to a 5.2% decline at the same point in 2023 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Progressive Leasing's GMV for Q1 was $402 million, down 4% from the previous year, primarily due to the bankruptcy of a large retail partner [22][24] - Excluding the impact of the Big Lots bankruptcy, GMV growth was low to mid-single digits [8][24] - Ford Technologies, the BNPL platform, achieved triple-digit revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time [11][80] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The macroeconomic environment has deteriorated, with inflation and tariff concerns impacting consumer confidence and spending [12][29] - Consumer behavior has shifted, with many delaying discretionary spending, particularly in big-ticket categories [8][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its ecosystem strategy, which includes enhancing both leasing and BNPL products to meet consumer needs [11][19] - Strategic investments in marketing and technology are prioritized to drive growth and optimize risk management [12][19] - The company aims to maintain a disciplined approach to spending while making selective capital investments [14][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging macro environment but expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate through it [12][29] - The revised 2025 outlook reflects increased macro uncertainty and a decline in consumer confidence, particularly in key categories [29][30] - Management expects lease portfolio performance to remain within the targeted 6% to 8% annual write-off range [30] Other Important Information - The company returned capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with a quarterly cash dividend of $0.13 per share [27] - The company has $335.2 million remaining under its $500 million share repurchase program [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the dynamics of the trade-down environment? - Management noted that trade-down behavior still exists but is more muted compared to the latter half of 2024, with no significant tightening observed [36] Question: How has retail softness progressed? - Management indicated that while the quarter started encouragingly, there was a noticeable downshift in consumer sentiment, with no significant rebound observed [40] Question: What is the impact of the Big Lots bankruptcy on GMV? - Management confirmed that the $30 million GMV headwind from the lost customer is expected to be consistent across the quarters [41][42] Question: How are inflation and tariffs impacting retail partners? - Management highlighted that modest price increases could be beneficial, but significant price shocks and demand destruction are concerning [46] Question: What is the status of the American Signature partnership? - Management reported positive progress with American Signature, indicating strong connectivity and training efforts [64] Question: What is the reduction in lease approval rates? - Management stated that lease approval rates are approximately 300 to 400 basis points lower year over year, influenced by tightening actions and a shift in application quality [70]