IRAY TECHNOLOGY(SH:688301)2025-05-08 02:20Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The report focuses on Yirui Technology (奕瑞科技, 688301.SH) and the CT tube industry, which is a critical component in medical CT machines, accounting for approximately 20% of the total BOM cost of a CT machine [1][1]. Key Points and Arguments - CT Tube Characteristics: The CT tube is described as the "core" of medical CT, characterized by six high attributes: high vacuum, high heat, high rotation, high voltage, high power, and high centrifugal force, indicating significant industry barriers to entry [1][1]. - Replacement Demand: CT tubes are high-value consumables with a rigid replacement demand. According to Wanruisi's financial report, the average replacement cycle for CT tubes globally is every 2-4 years, while in China, it is approximately 18 months due to high usage frequency, with some hospitals replacing tubes every 6-12 months [1][1]. - Market Size: The average bidding price for a 5MHU CT tube is between 400,000 to 800,000 CNY per unit. Projections indicate that the domestic CT tube market will exceed 20 billion CNY by 2025, highlighting significant market potential [2][2]. Industry Dynamics - Market Concentration: The CT tube market is highly monopolized by overseas manufacturers, with major global players including GPSC and independent manufacturers like Danli and Wanruisi dominating the market. Currently, domestic production is heavily reliant on imports, with a projected domestic replacement rate of less than 10% by 2024 [3][3]. - Government Initiatives: On April 4, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation and a competitiveness survey for CT tubes, which may provide crucial opportunities for the domestic CT tube industry and accelerate the process of domestic substitution [3][3]. Company Developments - Technological Advancements: Yirui Technology has established a dedicated CT tube team in 2022 and has overcome several technical challenges. The company plans to showcase a 3.5MHU CT tube component in February 2025, with small-scale production of a 5.0MHU liquid metal bearing CT tube expected in September 2025, and mass production of an 8.0MHU ball bearing CT tube anticipated in November 2025 [3][3]. - Investment Plans: The company intends to invest 1.563 billion CNY in the "X-ray vacuum device and comprehensive solution construction project," which will add production capacity for 77,000 CT tubes and 19,300 sets of X-ray comprehensive solution products, promoting technological advancement and industrialization of domestic CT tube products [3][3]. Financial Projections - Profit Forecast: The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 702 million CNY, 920 million CNY, and 1.202 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24.97x, 19.06x, and 14.59x [4][4].