零跑汽车20250515

Summary of Leap Motor's Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Leap Motor - Industry: Electric Vehicle (EV) Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Overseas Performance - Leap Motor's overseas export performance exceeded expectations, achieving profitability within a single quarter. Exports from January to April reached 13,600 units, ranking first among new forces in the industry. In April alone, over 6,000 units were exported, primarily the T03 model [2][7]. Stock Price Adjustments - The stock price adjustment in early April was influenced by multiple factors: 1. Increased tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China, leading to a market downturn. 2. Lower-than-expected order conversion rates for the B10 model post-launch. 3. Concerns over potential new minimum price policies from the EU affecting overseas sales [2][4]. Future Impact of European Policies - If the EU implements minimum price policies, the export volume of the T03 model may be affected in Q4 2025. However, the establishment of a local production facility in Spain is expected to mitigate this impact, limiting it to approximately one quarter [2][6]. Optimistic Sales Projections - Domestic sales expectations for 2025 are optimistic, with the B10 model projected to achieve stable monthly sales of 15,000 units, and the B01 sedan gradually recovering to 6,000 to 7,000 units monthly. Total domestic sales for the year are expected to reach 550,000 to 560,000 units [2][10]. Revenue from Component Supply - Significant progress has been made in external supply of components, with agreements signed with brands like Hongqi and Jetta, expected to contribute approximately 67 million yuan in revenue in 2025 [2][9]. Overall Valuation and Growth Potential - The overall valuation space for Leap Motor in 2025 is estimated at around 100 billion yuan, potentially increasing to 120-130 billion yuan when considering additional contributions from component supply. In a favorable market sentiment, the valuation could reach 150 billion yuan by year-end [2][11]. - Long-term projections suggest a conservative domestic sales forecast of 1.5 million units and overseas sales of 100,000 units, leading to a total potential valuation of 250 billion to 300 billion yuan, indicating significant upward elasticity [2][12]. Recent Stock Price Trends - The recent increase in stock price is attributed to optimistic market expectations regarding the upcoming quarterly financial report and the anticipated launch of the B01 sedan, which is expected to support the stock price [2][13]. Additional Important Insights - The company is focusing on vertical integration of its supply chain, including self-developed three-electric systems and intelligent resources, which has positively influenced its valuation recovery from 0.7-0.8 times PS to over 1 times PS [3]. - The potential impact of European pricing policies on exports is a critical concern for investors, but the establishment of local production capabilities is expected to alleviate these worries in the long term [5][6].