Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The focus is on the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and its recovery following recent changes in global tariff policies, particularly between the US and China [1][5][34]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Tariff Policy Changes: - The US has suspended a 24% "reciprocal tariff" on China and canceled all tariffs effective after April 8, 2025. This has reduced the US tariff level on China from a peak of 145% to 30%, while China's tariffs on the US have decreased from 125% to 10% [1][5][34]. - This development has significantly improved global risk sentiment, leading to a recovery in major stock indices, including the MSCI Global Index and the Hang Seng Index [1][20]. 2. Market Recovery: - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a continuous recovery since the announcement of the tariff changes, surpassing levels prior to the tariff announcement and exceeding the high point of October 2024 [1][6][34]. - The recovery is attributed mainly to a significant decline in risk premiums, while risk-free rates and corporate earnings expectations have remained relatively stable [15][34]. 3. Sector Performance: - Most sectors in the Hong Kong market have fully recovered in terms of price and valuation since the tariff announcement. Notably, sectors such as information technology, semiconductors, and consumer goods have shown strong performance [2][34]. - Defensive sectors like utilities and materials have also surpassed previous highs, indicating robust demand driven by domestic consumption [2][34]. 4. Earnings Expectations: - Overall, corporate earnings expectations have been minimally impacted by tariff policies, with most sectors maintaining stable earnings forecasts. Some cyclical sectors have seen slight downgrades, but the majority remain positive [2][42][34]. 5. Investment Recommendations: - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: - Technology Innovation: Emphasizing sectors like semiconductors and internet technology, which are expected to benefit from policy support and demand growth [3][58]. - High Dividend Stocks: In a low-interest environment, high dividend-paying stocks in banking, utilities, and telecommunications are recommended [3][58]. - Policy Benefits: Financial services firms like brokerages and insurance companies are expected to benefit from increased market activity and consumer support policies [3][58]. 6. Market Sentiment and Risks: - Despite the positive developments, investor sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing uncertainties regarding future tariff policies and the potential impact of US economic policies [26][51]. - The report highlights the need to monitor the market's response to these uncertainties, particularly in relation to retail investor sentiment and credit risk in the US [26][30]. Additional Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing monitoring of global economic conditions and their potential impact on the Hong Kong market, particularly in light of the recent tariff negotiations and domestic policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and investment [51][52]. - The analysis includes various charts and data points illustrating the recovery of different sectors and the overall market sentiment, providing a comprehensive view of the current investment landscape in Hong Kong [37][39][57].
交银国际：内外形势积极变化下，港股修复了多少？