BARCLAYS：美国经济展望及FOMC预测更新-中美贸易战缓和-回顾与展望

FICC Research Economics 13 May 2025 US Outlook and FOMC forecast update China trade war de-escalation: Running it back Following news of a meaningful de-escalation in the trade conflict between the US and China, we expect a less significant jump in inflation and no recession. Our updated baseline is that the Fed will cut its policy rate by just 25bp this year, in December, followed by three 25bp cuts next year. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 5. All of these rat ...