中国经济展望：因关税缓和上调中国增长预测

China and the US both lowered the "reciprocal" tariff rates significantly and agreed to continue discussions and negotiations (see our earlier report), possibly with the framework of Phase One Deal as the starting point. We estimate that the weighted average incremental US tariff rate on Chinese goods in 2025 YTD is around 30% (ad valorem, vs 96% before the de-escalation), which is still very damaging for China's exports and growth. There is still significant uncertainty around future US-China negotiations, ...