天山铝业20250515

Summary of Tianshan Aluminum Industry Conference Call Company Overview - Tianshan Aluminum has established an integrated industrial chain from bauxite to high-performance aluminum materials, supported by self-owned power plants and prebaked anodes, significantly reducing production costs, especially in electricity costs, which are far below the industry average, enhancing profitability [2][3] Key Points Industry Position and Advantages - Tianshan Aluminum benefits from low-cost energy in Xinjiang and overseas resource layouts, achieving self-sufficiency in raw materials, reducing dependence on external markets, and enhancing risk resistance [2][3] - The company has built production bases in resource-rich areas over 30 years, forming an integrated layout from bauxite to alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and downstream processing [3] Financial Performance - Revenue and profit are closely linked to zinc price indices, with net profit expected to grow significantly in 2024 [2][7] - The company maintains a low expense ratio of around 4% from 2020 to 2024, indicating efficient management [7] - In 2024, despite fluctuations in alumina prices affecting revenue and profit structure, the overall profitability remains stable due to the cost advantages of the electrolytic aluminum production base in Xinjiang [8] Production Capacity and Cost Structure - The company has a self-sufficient power generation capacity with six 350 MW generators, achieving an electricity self-sufficiency rate of 80%-90% and an average electricity cost of approximately 0.22 CNY per kWh, significantly lower than the industry average of 0.41 CNY [3][4] - Tianshan Aluminum has 2.5 million tons of alumina capacity in Guangxi and is building 2 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity in Indonesia, along with acquiring bauxite mining rights [9] Market Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to experience a supply surplus in the first half of 2025, with prices fluctuating between 19,000 to 21,500 CNY per ton, and a potential shortage in 2026 [4][11] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of around 5.2 billion CNY in 2025, with a current P/E ratio of about 7 times, lower than the industry average of 8 times, indicating investment potential [6][13] Risk Management - Tianshan Aluminum has effectively mitigated raw material price volatility risks through strategic acquisitions and resource management, ensuring stable profitability even amid market fluctuations [5][9] Future Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve scale profits of 5.16 billion CNY, 5.9 billion CNY, and 6.5 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7, 6, and 5.6, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [13]