Global Data Watch_ There and back again. Sat May 17 2025

Global Economic Research 16 May 2025 Global Data Watch There and back again Our economic forecasts are adjusting to yet another significant shift in US policy. The US lowered tariffs on China this week to a level close to 40%, a material step back from the 145% rate. This action lowered the effective US tariff rate by nearly 10%-pts. However, at roughly 14%, the rate is still a spike from 3.5% at the beginning of this year (Figure 1). We still see this shock weighing on the outlook, but the détente—if it st ...