Red Robin Gourmet Burgers(RRGB) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, total revenues were $285.2 million compared to $309 million in Q4 2023, primarily due to a reduction in operating weeks from 13 to 12 [31] - Comparable restaurant revenue increased by 3.4%, driven by an increase in guest check average, despite a decline in guest traffic [32] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $12.7 million, an increase of $2 million from Q4 2023, attributed to reduced selling and G&A expenses [35] - Restaurant level operating profit as a percentage of restaurant revenue was 11.5%, a decrease of 70 basis points compared to the previous year [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Dine-in guest satisfaction scores improved by approximately 8 percentage points compared to 2023, surpassing the casual dining average [6] - The revamped Red Robin Royalty program added approximately 1.5 million members in 2024, ending the year with about 14.9 million members [7] - Loyalty transactions increased by 13%, indicating a rise in guest frequency and new member additions [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced sequential improvement in guest traffic trends throughout 2024, indicating successful implementation of the North Star plan [32] - The West Coast market saw significant pricing adjustments, which are expected to carry over into 2025 [49] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to further improve traffic trends and operational efficiency in 2025, focusing on guest engagement and loyalty programs [12][14] - New menu items, including the Hot Honey platform, are set to launch in March 2025, with expectations for ongoing innovation throughout the year [16][17] - The company plans to close 10 to 15 underperforming restaurants over the next five years, which is expected to enhance the overall strength of its remaining portfolio [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's trajectory, highlighting the successful transformation into an operations-focused company [44] - The company anticipates modestly positive same-store sales in 2025, despite a revenue headwind from restaurant closures [39] - Management emphasized the importance of balancing pricing strategies with guest experience to drive traffic growth [50] Other Important Information - The company expects capital expenditures of $25 million to $30 million in 2025, with a focus on generating free cash flow from operations [41][92] - The company has implemented new tools and dashboards to improve operational efficiency and drive profitability [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Balance between driving frequency and improving margins - Management noted that pricing adjustments were primarily made on the West Coast and that they expect to maintain a balance between traffic growth and cost management [49][50] Question: Trends in menu mix and discounts - Management expects discounts to increase year-over-year in Q1 and Q2 but normalize in Q3 and Q4, with positive trends in add-on purchases indicating consumer health [55][56] Question: Quarter-to-date trends and momentum - Management indicated a good start to the year, with expectations for same-store sales around plus three for the quarter, despite weather impacts [66] Question: Restaurant level margin improvement sources - The majority of expected margin improvements are anticipated to come from labor efficiencies rather than cost of goods sold [70] Question: Initiatives to drive takeout sales - Management expressed satisfaction with third-party sales and plans to enhance digital engagement to improve this segment [73] Question: Marketing budget and changes - The marketing budget remains similar to last year, with a focus on a comprehensive program across various channels [76] Question: Loyalty program performance - The loyalty program has seen significant growth from both new and lapsed users, contributing positively to traffic trends [84][89] Question: Expected restaurant closures and timing - Management confirmed that the expected closures are included in the guidance and will be spread throughout the year [98] Question: Commodity cost insights - The commodity basket is expected to experience standard inflation, with ground beef seeing the most significant increases [100][102]